Plus, diesel's rising price streak finally snaps, a 13-year shipper relationship ends in a $726K lawsuit, Congress takes a real swing at cargo theft, and more in today's newsletter.
"You need to know the rules of the game, and then you need to know how to play it."
Plus: 170+ truckers removed in Florida, new bill proposes $5M motor carrier insurance, truck sales take a huge dive, and more.
Plus, tariff deal with Mexico stalls, July's Blitz Week preparation, J.B. Hunt sees cautious shippers in bid talks, and more.
Happy Hump Day. April’s data drop from Arrive Logistics is here, and we're breaking down what’s happening across demand, capacity, rates, and what tariff jitters and cross-border trends say for the market.
Plus:
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🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT
🌍 Mexico and China Pushing Back on Trump Tariffs. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed no deal has been reached with U.S. President Donald Trump to lift steep tariffs on cars and metals, though talks continue amid economic strain. Mexico highlights the imbalance in steel and aluminum trade and seeks protections for key sectors under the USMCA. “Our argument is that, just like in other cases, those goods that enter under the free trade agreement should have zero tariffs,” Sheinbaum said. Meanwhile, China issued a sharp warning against nations making trade deals with the U.S. that undermine its interests, vowing retaliation. “China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner. China is determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights and interests.”
🚓 July's Operation Safe Driver Week & May's Blitz Week Set. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) has designated July 13–19, 2025, as Operation Safe Driver Week, focusing on reckless and dangerous driving behaviors. Law enforcement across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico will increase enforcement, targeting both commercial and passenger vehicle drivers for speeding, tailgating, and impaired driving. The initiative includes education and outreach to help reduce traffic fatalities, which remain high across North America. Also, DOT's 72-hour Blitz Week is happening May 13–15, with a focus on hours of service violations and tire inspections—something OTR Solutions recently reminded everyone about on Instagram. Drivers, don’t get caught slacking. And brokers? Might be a good week to “suddenly” remember you need some PTO.
📦 J.B. Hunt Navigates Shipper Caution in Contract Negotiations. J.B. Hunt faces prolonged contract negotiations as shippers delay decisions due to inflation, tariff uncertainty, and a softening spot market. On its Q1 2025 earnings call, executives reported only modest success in retaining business at lower rates. Revenue fell 1% to $2.92 billion, and operating income dropped 8%. With a volatile freight market, customers are hedging supply chain bets, revisiting sourcing strategies, and holding out for better rates—patterns seen in past downturns. The ongoing bid season and slower deal closures are central to the company’s hopes for recovery in 2025.
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Freight is wobbling through spring. Demand’s weak, capacity’s reactive, and tariffs are playing mind games with routing. Let's break down the latest data from Arrive Logistics' April 2025 Freight Market Update.
“The only certainty for the market seems to be more uncertainty ahead.” – David Spencer, VP of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics
Demand is still down across most modes, but strategic pull-forwards ahead of tariffs caused temporary spikes, especially in flatbed. Carriers and shippers are playing a game of wait-and-see, with China-origin freight taking the hardest hit.
“Freight activity leading up to tariffs has been followed by slowdowns once tariffs were live.” – David Spencer
Capacity has held relatively steady, but it remains susceptible to seasonal shifts and even modest demand upticks. Arrive notes that while we haven’t hit disruption territory yet, the foundation is shaky.
Rates have mostly held steady, but there's pressure building under the surface. Spot-contract spreads remain wide, giving brokers a buffer, but seasonality and tariffs could change the equation fast.
Adriana Pulley
Mexico: Capacity tightened near Querétaro and Guanajuato, with Holy Week causing temporary dips in volume. Tariffs, produce, and industrial growth are combining to drive volatility.
Canada: Tariff retaliation is stinging. Canadian provinces are pulling U.S. goods (bourbon bans made headlines), and freight volume dipped post-policy. Forwarding rates remain pressured.
Bottom Line: The market’s not falling off another cliff, but it’s not climbing either. Everyone should brace for a bumpy Q2 with slow demand recovery, tighter margins, and global trade drama stirring the pot. Eyes on summer: it might not bring the heat we hoped for.
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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB
🔥 Truck Fire on I-65. A fiery semi-truck crash on Interstate 65 in Indiana caused lane closures. The truck driver was not injured. According to a preliminary police investigation, the fire was due to a mechanical failure in the tractor portion of the truck.
🌉 Bridge Becomes Pawn. The Gordie Howe Bridge nears completion but is now caught in the U.S.-Canada tariff standoff. Steel and aluminum tariffs could raise costs for automakers, undermining the bridge’s intended role in boosting trade.
📊 Forward Air Ups Forecast. Boosted by improved freight demand and margins, Forward Air raised its Q1 EBITDA guidance, signaling stronger-than-expected performance. The company will report Q1 results after the market closes on May 7.
🚨 Drug Bust. Tennessee authorities in Haywood County seized roughly $9 million in cocaine during a traffic stop on I-40. After a four-hour search of “two aftermarket compartments” in the truck’s trailer, agents discovered 90 wrapped kilos, weighing about 200 pounds.
📦 Fierce Competition. In 2024, alternative carriers made gains on FedEx and UPS as more shippers turned to smaller networks for cost savings and flexibility. These outside carriers delivered 2.3 billion packages in the U.S. last year—up 44% year over year.
🔐 Fighting Back. Cargo theft has become a strategic and organized threat. Join Descartes's Danielle Spinelli, TIA's Daniel Hoff and California Highway Patrol on April 24 in an online event to uncover investigative tactics and how to better help law enforcement officials.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FREIGHT HUMOR
Plus, diesel's rising price streak finally snaps, a 13-year shipper relationship ends in a $726K lawsuit, Congress takes a real swing at cargo theft, and more in today's newsletter.
"You need to know the rules of the game, and then you need to know how to play it."
Plus: 170+ truckers removed in Florida, new bill proposes $5M motor carrier insurance, truck sales take a huge dive, and more.
Plus, C.H. Robinson's 2026 rate forecast update, Hormuz tankers still stuck, a $1M LEGO heist, and more.
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