A trade group is suing to strip California and New York of the power to issue commercial driver's licenses entirely. Plus: $3/mi is now breakeven, DOT wants to rate every carrier, routing guides are falling apart, and more.
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"We're basically in the center of the United States. As middle as you can get. Every class one railroad comes through Kansas City. It makes it very unique."
Plus: autonomous trucking just raised $113M, California is fighting to keep 20,000 drivers, Arrive's 2026 truckload freight forecast, and more.
Happy Monday. The U.S. and Israel struck Iran; Iran struck back at tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. By Sunday morning, Maersk had stopped using two of the world's most critical shipping lanes. We break them down in today's feature.
Plus:
🤖 Swedish Autonomous Trucking Just Raised $113M. Einride, the Stockholm-based company best known for its cab-less, driver-optional electric freight pods, closed an oversubscribed $113M PIPE financing ahead of its planned NYSE listing under ticker "ENRD." Total committed capital is now $213M at a $1.35B valuation. They exceeded their $100M target, which means investors wanted in more than Einride needed them to. The money goes toward scaling autonomous deployments across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Driverless trucking is still attracting serious capital.
⚖️ California Is Fighting to Keep 20,000 Drivers on the Road. California is accusing federal regulators of “moving the goal posts” as it faces mounting pressure to revoke thousands of non-domiciled CDLs. A Bay Area judge has tentatively allowed affected drivers to keep their licenses while litigation unfolds. But the state now faces a compliance dilemma: delaying revocations to follow the court process could risk federal non-compliance, potentially jeopardizing more highway funding and its standing in the federal CDL program. The revocation date is March 6th, with a new federal ban on noncitizen CDLs kicking in March 16th.
📈 Arrive Logistics Is Calling 28% Spot Rate Growth by June. Arrive Logistics just dropped their 2026 Truckload Freight Forecast, and it's not subtle. Van spot rates peak at 28% year-over-year growth in June. Reefer hits 29%. Contract rates are expected to follow at 10-11% by December. The thesis: years of carriers exiting the market have left capacity so thin that the market no longer needs a demand surge to push rates higher. It just needs a disruption and there are several building right now. The summer peak between DOT Roadcheck Week and the Fourth of July is the next pressure point to watch.
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Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated by striking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
By Sunday, Maersk suspended transits through Hormuz and halted Red Sea routing. Not because the lanes are closed, but because risk is rising.
Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are widely expected to resume, and Maersk had only recently returned to the route before pulling back again.
When the world’s largest shipping company makes a call like that, the supply chain feels it immediately.
Two of the most critical shipping lanes on the planet are now effectively offline.
1) Strait of Hormuz = the world’s energy throat.
On a normal day, roughly one-fifth of global oil and a meaningful share of LNG move through this choke point.
It is the only sea outlet for Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and much of Saudi Arabia’s production.
If it becomes too dangerous to transit, there is no clean workaround. Pipelines are limited, and detours don’t exist for oil the way they do for containers.
2) Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb = the shortcut to Suez.
To reach the Suez Canal, ships must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (shown in the image above), the southern chokepoint where Houthi attacks were concentrated.
Even if it’s not “officially closed,” it doesn’t have to be. If risk rises, carriers reroute, effectively turning the lane off for much of global trade.
Ships avoiding the Red Sea have one option: sail around the southern tip of Africa. That adds 10–14 days and significant fuel cost to every voyage.
Maersk has already rerouted vessels away from the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits.
Plus, the impact on diesel.
A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil toward $120–$130 per barrel, according to JP Morgan. Prices have already jumped from recent lows as markets price in disruption risk.
If oil keeps climbing, fuel surcharges rise, operating costs jump, and carrier pricing tightens.
Sources: Maersk.com, New York Times, Reuters, JP Morgan, FreightWaves
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🏛️ Broker Liability Hits the Supreme Court Next Week. The court will decide whether freight brokers can be held liable for negligently hiring dangerous carriers. If brokers lose, carrier vetting just became a legal obligation.
🏦 Illinois' Trucking Insurance Pool Is Hemorrhaging Money. The state's assigned risk program is paying out $1.91 for every $1 it collects, and carriers allegedly listing 10 trucks when they're running 100 may be why.
📦 Long Beach Just Had Its Second-Busiest January Ever. Despite the trade war, tariff chaos, and a 13% decline in imports, the Port of Long Beach still moved 847,765 TEUs last month. Importers are frontloading ahead of uncertainty, keeping volumes historically high.
⚖️ 2,000 Companies Are Suing for Their Tariff Money Back. After the Supreme Court struck down most of Trump's tariffs, FedEx, Costco, and Dollar General joined over 2,000 lawsuits seeking refunds on $170B collected. Trump suggested it could take years to resolve.
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A trade group is suing to strip California and New York of the power to issue commercial driver's licenses entirely. Plus: $3/mi is now breakeven, DOT wants to rate every carrier, routing guides are falling apart, and more.
"We're basically in the center of the United States. As middle as you can get. Every class one railroad comes through Kansas City. It makes it very unique."
S&P is cautiously optimistic about the freight recovery, but it still kept RXO's rating below investment grade. Plus: the Strait is set to reopen, Volvo pulls the safety driver, the U.S. goes after cheap trailers, and more.
The World Cup kicked off, and Amazon decided to become forklift certified. Plus: the Fed could spoil freight's party, C.H. Robinson in crosshairs again, the World Cup is a freight problem, and more.
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