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Peak Season on Ozempic

Truckload rejections are falling when they should be climbing ahead of the holidays, and diesel is still above $6 a gallon.

Nebojsa Lindic, Paul Jaroslawski · November 4, 2026 · 7 min read

Happy Hump Day. Craig Fuller says freight is flashing a warning about the consumer economy. One reader’s response: peak season hasn’t even started yet. Today, we look at the numbers behind the disagreement.

Plus:

Driverless, With Chinese Parts
New Rules, Same Ego
Broker Beats Negligence Claims

💡 QUESTION OF THE DAY:

U.S. truckload rejections have fallen from above 17% in late June to ______% heading into peak season.

🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

A Hesai lidar sensor sits beneath the mirror on this Kodiak autonomous truck. The Pentagon designated Hesai a “Chinese military company” in 2024, a label the supplier disputes. Image Source: **Overdrive**

🤖 Driverless, With Chinese Parts. Aurora and Kodiak confirmed they use lidar sensors from Chinese supplier Hesai, Overdrive reported. The sensors use lasers to map the trucks’ surroundings. Kodiak said its technology blocks Hesai from accessing sensor readings or information generated by its autonomous system. Aurora manufactures its main long-range lidar in Montana but supplements it with shorter-range sensors from China. Those units lack separate software and internet connectivity, keeping their data inside Aurora’s system, the company said. Hesai denies military ties following its Pentagon designation as a “Chinese military company” in 2024.

🚛 New Rules, Same Ego. Super Ego contacted us to clarify that SkyBlue is its subsidiary, not a successor company, and that Super Ego remains active. Its new leasing and rental restrictions took effect November 1. The policy bars owner-operators with non-domiciled CDLs and applicants from carriers whose owners hold those licenses. Applicants must resolve English-proficiency violations before approval. Customers must provide current FMCSA safety ratings, and carriers rated Conditional will be rejected. The rules cover new agreements, renewals, and added equipment; violations trigger immediate termination. Super Ego describes itself as an equipment lessor and says it does not employ or dispatch drivers or transport freight.

⚖️ Broker Beats Negligence Claims. A federal judge in Houston, Texas, dismissed negligence claims against freight broker JCT Automotive with prejudice on November 2. The lawsuit concerned a 2025 Cadillac Escalade ESV allegedly lost during interstate transport. Amherst Specialty Insurance, acting for Kia of Covington, sought at least $134,000. Its allegations against JCT included negligent entrustment, hiring, training, and supervision. JCT argued federal law barred the negligence claims because cargo theft did not fall under its motor-vehicle safety exception. Amherst did not oppose the motion. Instead, it had removed the negligence allegations from its amended complaint and added a breach-of-contract claim against JCT.

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Where’s Peak Season?

Truckload rejections are falling, and Craig Fuller thinks the consumer economy is weaker than the official numbers suggest.

“This is supposed to be peak season, but truckload rejections are falling when they should be going up,” the FreightWaves founder wrote on November 3.

His SONAR chart shows the U.S. Truckload Rejection Index at 12.86%, down from above 17% in late June. A lower rejection rate means carriers are accepting a larger share of contracted load tenders.

The current reading remains above the same point in the previous three years, but the recent direction has Fuller questioning holiday demand.

One reply challenged his timing. Mickey, posting as @Kriptocrite, argued that peak season starts in the third week of November and predicted it would be the “most intense one ever.”

Spot Rates Slip

Broker-posted spot rates fell to $3.23 per mile, including fuel, for the week ending October 30. Source: **FTR/Truckstop**

The latest Truckstop/FTR report gives Fuller some supporting evidence. During the week ending October 30, broker-posted spot rates declined across dry van, reefer, and flatbed equipment for the first time since mid-August.

Dry van fell 2.5 cents per mile, reefer dropped 3.5 cents, and flatbed lost 1.6 cents. Total load postings increased 8.5%, while truck postings were essentially unchanged.

DAT’s November 2 report showed a different weekly result: dry van spot linehaul rates rose three cents to $2.23 per mile, excluding fuel. Load postings increased 8.4%, and truck postings fell 5.7%.

These are separate datasets: Truckstop reports broker-posted rates, while DAT’s figures reflect rates paid to carriers.

Inventories Are Building

The LMI inventory index jumped eight points to 66.9 in October. Source: **Logistics Managers’ Index**

October’s Logistics Managers’ Index also showed companies bringing in freight. Its inventory reading jumped eight points to 66.9, the fastest expansion in four years.

Transportation capacity remained in contraction for an 11th consecutive month. The report attributed the inventory buildup to companies preparing for what they hope will be a strong holiday shopping season.

Those purchases establish restocking activity; consumer sales still have to follow.

Diesel Adds Pressure

Diesel is above its 2022 quarterly peak, which preceded a 45-month freight downturn. Image Source: **X (Mark Kummer)**

Carriers are entering the holiday shipping season with diesel still above $6 a gallon. The DOE/EIA benchmark fell six cents to $6.292 per gallon this week.

A chart Mark Kummer shared on X shows diesel averaging $5.57 per gallon in Q3 2026, versus $5.48 in Q2 2022. The 2022 spike was followed by a 45-month freight downturn.

Truckload rates are now above their 2022 peak while tonnage remains relatively flat. As the chart notes, this is a historical comparison, not a forecast of another freight downturn.

For smaller carriers, a busier peak also means buying more fuel before customers pay. FTR’s Eric Starks highlighted that cash-flow gap in his outlook: “Even if you know that you’re going to recoup it from your customer, you have to pay for it today.”

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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

ELDT Nation advertises itself as “FMCSA-approved” while under audit and facing proposed removal from the agency’s Training Provider Registry. Image Source: **Overdrive**

🎓 CDL Theory for $23. ELDT Nation faces proposed removal from FMCSA’s training registry while advertising “FMCSA-approved” online theory courses for $23. Founder Gabriel Ruimy says some students finish in about two hours.

🤖 How Many Loads Per Employee? In Logistics Management’s brokerage roundtable, Evan Armstrong outlined benchmarks of at least 15 spot truckloads per person daily and $1.5 million in annual gross revenue per employee. He said some brokers using AI exceeded 40 loads per person daily.

🌿 Wrong Kind of Reefer. Mississippi authorities seized 1,959 pounds of marijuana and 204 pounds of cocaine during a traffic stop on an 18-wheeler along I-20. Both co-drivers were arrested and charged with drug trafficking.

🤝 Brokerage Buyer Adds a Risk Specialist. Open Road Ventures added former Amtrak chief risk officer Matthew Gagnon to its advisory board. The firm acquires small and midsize freight brokerages. Gagnon will help acquired companies strengthen financial controls, compliance, and risk management.

🛂 15-State Crackdown Nets 230-Plus Arrests. DHS reported more than 230 arrests during Operation Guardian, including more than 40 CDL holders. DHS did not specify how many detained CDL holders had obtained their licenses fraudulently.

📅 Roadcheck Dates Are Out. CVSA’s 2027 enforcement calendar puts International Roadcheck on May 11–13. Brake Safety Week moves from its usual August slot to April 18–24, while Operation Safe Driver Week runs July 11–17.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

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😂 FREIGHT HUMOR

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🎧 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR PODCAST

Mark Hill, CEO of PCS Software, joined Paul-Bernard Jaroslawski and Lev Krasnopolskiy on the FreightCaviar Podcast to discuss what every dispatcher should do before 2027, the future of AI agents in dispatching, and his outlook for diesel prices and their impact on trucking.

Watch it on YouTube, or listen to the full episode on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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