Newsletter
Grand Theft Cargo
An $11.4 million Nvidia shipment vanishes as cargo theft losses climb and some carriers steal the freight they’re hired to deliver.
Nebojsa Lindic, Paul Jaroslawski · November 9, 2026 · 7 min read
Happy Monday. Cargo theft incidents fell in Q3, but losses topped $230 million, while Highway’s latest findings show some carriers are stealing freight after accepting legitimate shipments.
Plus:
Carrier Exits Overtake Entries
Driverless Targets Cost Parity in 2028
Fuel Drives Intermodal Rate Increases
💡 QUESTION OF THE DAY:
Estimated cargo theft losses rose ___% year over year in the first nine months of 2026.
🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT
🚛 Carrier Exits Overtake Entries. Trucking authority exits exceeded entries by 535 in the latest SONAR reading shared by FreightWaves trucking analyst Thomas Wasson. It was the first net decline since April, reversing months in which more authorities entered than left. Recent positive readings topped 2,000, a sharp contrast to the sustained net exits seen through much of 2023 and 2024. The shift comes as spot rates remain under pressure, down 2.5% for the month, despite being 46% higher year over year. Fuel costs were up 68% year over year. Wasson said the higher fuel bill was eating into “already distressed margins,” despite the annual improvement in spot rates.
🤖 Driverless Targets Cost Parity in 2028. Autonomous trucks could cost the same to operate as conventional trucks in the U.S. by 2028, at around $2.60 per mile, according to a Kearney/MIT analysis. It projects driverless trucking costs falling from about $4 per mile this year to $2 by 2035. Those savings depend on larger autonomous fleets spreading development costs across more trucks. Slower fleet growth could delay matching conventional trucking costs until 2032. Kearney says cheaper driverless fleets could make it harder for small carriers to compete. Brokers would still arrange freight, but could work with fewer, larger carriers, similar to today’s LTL market.
🚂 Fuel Drives Intermodal Rate Increases. Intermodal contract rates, including fuel, are up more than 12% year over year on transcontinental lanes and nearly 9% on shorter Eastern lanes, according to SONAR data. FreightWaves estimates fuel accounts for roughly two-thirds of the transcontinental increase and three-quarters of the Eastern increase. Excluding fuel, rates are up about 5% and 2%, respectively. Even after those increases, intermodal still offers about 30% savings versus comparable truckload lanes, down from 33% in June. J.B. Hunt reported only low-single-digit rate increases in the bid season that ended in September. The rate data runs a few weeks behind actual shipments, so changes in diesel prices take time to show up.
PRESENTED BY VOOMA
Teams have seen an increase of 0.5-1% in GP, Quote win rates up by 15%, carrier re-use doubling and reps focusing their time on relationships and more strategic work.
An $11.4 Million Theft as Cargo Losses Mount
Six pallets of Nvidia hardware worth $11.4 million were picked up in Oakland on August 29 for delivery to Fort Worth, Texas.
A truck displaying a food transportation company’s logo collected the shipment as scheduled. The victim reported the theft to Oakland police on September 13, fifteen days after pickup.
Investigators reconstructing the truck’s route traced it as far as San Bernardino County, where the trail ended.
ABC News reported on the case November 6, with the investigation ongoing and no arrests announced. Police have not disclosed how the cargo was stolen.
The August shipment is now drawing attention alongside new figures showing fewer reported theft incidents but substantially larger losses per incident.
Cargo Losses Keep Climbing
Verisk CargoNet recorded 547 supply-chain crime incidents across the U.S. and Canada in Q3, down 33% year over year. Estimated losses nevertheless rose 12% to just over $230 million.
The average value of stolen commodities in cases with documented losses climbed 72% to $448,456. Nineteen thefts involved documented losses of at least $1 million, compared with nine a year earlier.
Many involved electronics and data-center materials. Estimated cargo theft losses reached $718.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 39% from the same period in 2025. California accounted for approximately one-third of Q3 incidents.
When the Carrier Steals
Highway’s Q3 findings describe another problem for brokers: carriers accepting legitimate shipments and stealing the freight themselves.
Direct theft accounted for 36.4% of stolen loads reported to Highway in Q3, up from 31.3% in Q2.
Direct-theft reports fell 16%, while total stolen-load reports dropped 28.1%. That left direct theft representing a larger share of the total, even with fewer cases.
Highway said these carriers may have established operating histories, legitimate equipment, and trusted broker relationships. Some collected multiple loads over several days before brokers discovered the missing freight.
Check Who’s Picking Up
Separately, in comments to FreightWaves, Alyssa Fleury, director of operations at Premier Expediters Inc. (PEI), described another complication: her brokerage sometimes hires one carrier, then discovers a different trucking company arriving for pickup.
That prompts additional checks of operating authority, insurance, and the companies' relationship.
CargoNet warned that extended facility closures and reduced holiday staffing can create additional opportunities for theft.
Highway recommends confirming the assigned driver’s contact information before pickup and verifying sensitive requests by calling the carrier’s verified phone number.
PRESENTED BY HIGHWAY
Highway’s Q3 2026 Freight Fraud Index is now available and it reveals new insights into the fraud signals and vectors brokers should watch for.
This quarter’s findings highlight a growing challenge for freight brokers: maintaining trust and mitigating risk requires more than verifying a carrier once. Fraudsters are exploiting legitimate carrier credentials, compromised communications, and established relationships to gain access to freight.
The credentials are real, but the people behind them aren't always who they claim to be.
🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB
🔑 The Caller Did More Than Call. A motorist who reported erratic semi driving near Flagstaff pulled the driver from his cab and took the keys before police arrived. Arizona DPS reported a 0.301 BAC, arrested the driver for DUI, and impounded the truck and trailer for 20 days.
🎪 Fuze Takes the Stage. Fuze Logistics acquired Express Freight, adding show and event logistics to its business. The deal includes warehouses in Orlando and Atlanta and a Houston sales office.
📋 FMCSA Updates Complaint Center. FMCSA updated its online complaint center, streamlining reports of broker violations, registration fraud, identity theft, driver training issues, and other trucking violations.
🛡️ Tallgrass Catches Scams Weekly. Tallgrass Freight says it catches two to three attempted scams weekly. Its checks include verified email addresses, VIN and insurance reviews, and CRM blocks for flagged carriers.
🛑 Brake Checks Sideline 2,134. Newly released CVSA results show 2,134 U.S. commercial vehicles were placed out of service for brake violations during August’s Brake Safety Week. That’s 15.1% of the 14,165 vehicles inspected nationwide.
🚨 ELD Allegations Bring in the FBI. Indiana State Police have involved the FBI in an investigation of a 45-truck Indiana carrier over alleged ELD manipulation and driver pay skimming. The carrier’s owner denies the allegations.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
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