Plus, diesel's rising price streak finally snaps, a 13-year shipper relationship ends in a $726K lawsuit, Congress takes a real swing at cargo theft, and more in today's newsletter.
"You need to know the rules of the game, and then you need to know how to play it."
Plus: 170+ truckers removed in Florida, new bill proposes $5M motor carrier insurance, truck sales take a huge dive, and more.
Plus: NC's turkey boom, 37 undocumented CDL holders arrested in NY, and the UP-NS Merger Could Spike Prices, GOP warns
Happy Hump Day. Home Depot’s latest earnings miss reflects a deeper slowdown: a weak housing market is dragging down home-improvement demand, and the freight volumes tied to it.
Plus:
🦃 North Carolina’s Turkey Boom. DAT Freight & Analytics reports that North Carolina processors are moving 8–10 million birds in the two weeks before the holiday, more than 5,000 truckloads of turkey heading to DCs across the Northeast and Southeast. Reefer capacity is tightening fast, with spot rates up 10–15% as carriers chase seasonal demand. The pre-Thanksgiving rush cements North Carolina as one of November’s most competitive refrigerated freight markets for brokers and carriers.
🚨 37 Undocumented CDL Holders Arrested in NY Thruway Sweep. U.S. Border Patrol’s “Operation Bear Cave” led to 37 arrests along I-90 in western New York, including 30 undocumented drivers holding valid CDLs issued in nine states. All were transferred to ICE for removal proceedings. Officials say the surge in non-English-proficient, undocumented CDL holders operating commercial vehicles poses “serious roadway risks,” citing recent major crashes tied to unqualified drivers. The three-day operation spanned more than ten stops along the Thruway and marks the latest federal push targeting immigration violations within the trucking industry.
🚂 GOP Warns UP–NS Rail Merger Could Spike Prices, Hurt Competitiveness. Dozens of Republican state legislators urged the Surface Transportation Board to scrutinize the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern mega-merger, warning it could shrink rail competition, raise shipping costs, and weaken U.S. competitiveness against China. They argue a combined UP–NS would control 45% of U.S. rail tonnage, creating captive shippers and inflationary pressure on goods like steel, autos, energy, and food. UP CEO Jim Vena insists approval is “99.999%” certain, calling the deal a boost to efficiency and coast-to-coast service. Republicans want regulators to ensure the merger truly improves competition, reliability, and supply chain resilience.
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Home Depot’s latest results point to a slowdown rippling far beyond retail. The company posted its third consecutive earnings miss, cut its full-year profit outlook, and reported weaker-than-expected home improvement demand — all symptoms of a housing market that is no longer generating the freight activity it once fueled.
For freight brokers and carriers, the underlying signal is clear: slower housing activity means slower freight volumes, and the current environment shows little sign of near-term recovery.
Home Depot lowered expectations across nearly every performance metric after softer consumer spending and a subdued housing market undercut demand for big-ticket projects. CFO Richard McPhail said the retailer had assumed activity would “accelerate gradually in the back half of the year,” but ongoing consumer uncertainty and higher borrowing costs stalled that outlook.
A combination of weaker housing turnover, elevated mortgage rates, and fewer storms, typically a catalyst for roofing and repair freight, pushed sales below expectations:
Sales momentum weakened as the quarter progressed: up 2% in August, up 0.5% in September, and down 1.5% in October.
These patterns match freight-sector indicators that consistently show softening demand in building materials, appliances, and household goods, categories heavily tied to home sales.
When fewer people move, fewer appliances are delivered. Fewer renovations mean fewer loads of lumber, drywall, and roofing. And when homeowners delay large projects, a “deferral mindset,” as McPhail described, freight tied to home improvement stalls as well.
Home Depot’s results highlight several freight-relevant pressures emerging simultaneously:
Truckload demand tied to residential goods remains structurally weaker than during the 2020–2022 housing boom. Home Depot’s outlook suggests no immediate catalyst for acceleration.
A sluggish housing market is suppressing a major engine of domestic trucking tonnage, and leading indicators point to continued soft conditions into 2026.
Brokers and carriers should expect ongoing weakness in housing-linked freight until borrowing costs ease, home sales stabilize, or consumers shift out of their deferral mindset.
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🎓 Loyola Seminar. Loyola University Chicago will host its final Supply Chain & Sustainability seminar today, Nov. 19 with Americold’s Mathew Moore, 5–6 pm, followed by a MAKA-sponsored happy hour. Register for the event here.
👨💼 New Leadership. Transflo appointed Dwayne Primeau to lead its Assured Telematics Innovation division, steering development of its fleet-tracking, video, and safety-analytics ecosystem.
📋 Nevada CDL Cuts. Nevada will eliminate nearly 1,000 non-domiciled CDLs, including 62 held by Mexican and Canadian drivers, as the state fully phases out limited-term commercial licenses.
💰 Amazon Bond Rush. Amazon drew about $80 billion in investor orders for a $12 billion bond sale, one of its largest ever to date. The strong demand for high-grade corporate debt is increasing companies look to build more AI-centric infrastructure.
🛠 El Paso Expansion. C.H. Robinson added 450,000 sq. ft. to its El Paso presence, lifting its border footprint above 2 million sq. ft. as Mexico-bound freight continues to surge.
🚔 Dallas Theft Bust. Dallas police arrested five suspects and recovered $1 million in stolen cargo after uncovering a repair shop used as a staging site for large-scale thefts.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FREIGHT HUMOR
Plus, diesel's rising price streak finally snaps, a 13-year shipper relationship ends in a $726K lawsuit, Congress takes a real swing at cargo theft, and more in today's newsletter.
"You need to know the rules of the game, and then you need to know how to play it."
Plus: 170+ truckers removed in Florida, new bill proposes $5M motor carrier insurance, truck sales take a huge dive, and more.
Plus, C.H. Robinson's 2026 rate forecast update, Hormuz tankers still stuck, a $1M LEGO heist, and more.
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