A practical look at how freight AI is evolving from simple automation to operational decision support, and what it means for broker productivity, tribal knowledge capture, and more.
Harish Abbott, CEO of Augment, shares why the future of freight is already here and how to adapt to it.
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal. Plus: an Illinois official took $300K and handed out illegal CDLs, cartel violence may affect your Mexico freight, 550 CDL schools just got shut down, and more.
Plus: deadly pileups from snow, fires, and wrong-way crashes, FMCSA reopens broker transparency rule, FedEx Freight spinoff sparks industry buzz, and more.
Happy Monday. Spot rates are still falling, Laredo is in chaos, and tariffs could shake up the market. Where do we go from here?
Plus:
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🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT
🌨️ Tragic Interstate Pileups: Snow, Fires, and Wrong-Way Driving. Three major crashes were reported over the weekend due to the severe snowy weather sweeping the nation. In Washington, a 22-vehicle pileup involving semi trucks injured six and backed up traffic for 12 miles on I-5. In Utah, a wrong-way driver in a Cadillac caused a high-speed collision with multiple semis, critically injuring one person and disrupting I-15 for hours. Wyoming witnessed a fiery 26-vehicle crash in an I-80 tunnel, claiming three lives, injuring five, and causing extensive fire damage to the tunnel’s structure. Slick roads and hazardous weather conditions contributed to the devastation. Investigations are underway as first responders continue clearing wreckage in some areas and assess safety impacts.
📄 FMCSA Reopens Broker Transparency Rule for Public Comment. The FMCSA has reopened the comment period for its “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” rulemaking, which ends March 20. The move comes in response to a request from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC). The rule aims to improve access to broker transaction records, addressing truckers’ concerns over price gouging and fair compensation. SBTC, representing 21,000 members, argues the proposal lacks strong protections, including banning waivers of record review rights. The OOIDA supports similar changes. However, critics like the Transportation Intermediaries Association have dismissed the rule as “a solution in search of a problem,” urging FMCSA to instead focus on “addressing highway safety” and combating the “proliferating fraud pandemic” in the supply chain.
👨💼 FedEx Freight Spinoff Sparks Industry Buzz. FedEx’s planned spinoff of its LTL unit, FedEx Freight, has drawn close scrutiny from competitors and analysts. Executives from Old Dominion, Saia, XPO, and ArcBest weighed in during Q4 earnings calls, discussing the potential impact on their operations and the broader LTL market. Most leaders anticipate the move will highlight FedEx’s “continued discipline” within the market while creating opportunities for competitors to capture business from customers seeking stability. Saia emphasized the importance of “consistent, undisputed service,” while XPO viewed the spinoff as validation of LTL’s strong margins. ArcBest noted its efforts to expand within its loyal customer base. Summing up, XPO CEO Marty Freeman remarked, “They are a competitor today; they’ll be a competitor tomorrow.”
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The freight market has been through the wringer over the past few years, and 2025 isn’t breaking the cycle. Spot rates are struggling, truckload demand is shaky, and looming tariff policies could make things even more unpredictable.
As we head deeper into Q1, one question looms: Where does the market go from here?
Dry van spot rates dropped another $0.04 per mile, bringing the national average to $1.68 per mile (excluding fuel). On the top 50 lanes by volume, carriers managed $2.00 per mile, which is still $0.32 above the national average—but the downward trend is undeniable.
Can carriers expect a rebound? Jason Miller warns that unless rates climb back up in March, we could be staring down an extended downturn.”
"Unfortunately for carriers, my statement from about a month ago of 'given how bad the weather has been this January, it’s premature to declare that the bulls are truly running. If we maintain current spot pricing in February and start to see further upward movement in March, then we will be in a position to declare the next upward pricing cycle has commenced,' appears to be proving correct." – Jason Miller, Supply Chain Professor
One of the biggest disruptions right now? Laredo, Texas—the largest U.S.-Mexico trucking hub. According to data from FreightWaves, tender rejection rates have spiked to over 6%, up from 3.8% in Q4, and it’s not just about demand, which is 10% higher YoY.
Shippers are front-loading freight across the border to avoid potential cost hikes from tariffs, leading to a spike in short-term demand. But at the same time, Laredo’s chronic freight imbalance makes it a tough market for carriers to stick around.
California is stealing trucks.
L.A. is booming thanks to surging Asian imports, keeping rejection rates below 3% despite freight volumes being up 7-8% YoY. Longer-haul, higher-paying loads make the West Coast way more appealing than Laredo.
Adriana Pulley
The biggest wildcard in the market right now? Tariffs. The Trump administration is rolling out a reciprocal tariff policy, which means that every country that taxes U.S. imports will see the same tax applied to their goods. The impact could be huge, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors.
“Tariffs were a different story in 2018 because freight demand was surging. That’s not the case in 2025.” – Miller
If companies adjust their sourcing strategies due to tariffs, we could see major shifts in freight demand. If tariffs disrupt supply chains, it could delay the dry van market recovery even further.
As truckload markets remain volatile, reefer capacity is following its own pattern. The latest USDA Truck Rate Report shows mostly stable capacity, but some hotspots are emerging, like Baltimore, Boston, and Philadelphia, where demand is 30% higher for some lanes.
Major Mexico crossings for produce into the U.S. are reporting normal volumes, with slight rate increases on key lanes. But with cross-border tariffs looming, these rates may get volatile.
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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB
🥶 Extreme Cold Alert. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for North Texas from Tuesday until Thursday morning due to an incoming Arctic blast. Wind chills could drop as low as -10°F in some areas.
🚛 Covenant Tests Biodiesel. Covenant Logistics retrofitted three diesel trucks to run on near-zero carbon B100 biodiesel, offering a new decarbonization option for fleets.
❌ No Felony Drivers. A proposed Utah bill would prohibit individuals with recent violent felony convictions or records of fleeing from police from obtaining a CDL. If passed, the law would take effect on May 7, 2025.
⚖ Another PPP Conviction. Christopher Lee Carroll has been sentenced to nine years in prison for PPP loan fraud after misusing funds as “owner draws.” He has also been ordered to pay $3 million in restitution.
🚂 Heist Arrest. Authorities have arrested suspects involved in the theft of more than 200 cases of Nike shoes stolen from a train in Northern Arizona. The thieves reportedly cut an air hose to force the train into an emergency stop. Ten of the 11 suspects were in the country illegally.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FREIGHT HUMOR
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal. Plus: an Illinois official took $300K and handed out illegal CDLs, cartel violence may affect your Mexico freight, 550 CDL schools just got shut down, and more.
Here are the Top 500 fleets of 2026. Plus: Sierra snow shuts down I-80, rail targets truckload freight, and ocean rates fall.
Here’s what’s trending across freight and logistics on X, LinkedIn, Reddit, and YouTube.
Freight rates could climb faster than anyone expects. Plus: Illinois CDL crackdown, 2026 top freight bottlenecks, LA Port slows, and more.
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