Plus: what FMCSA crash data actually says about non-domiciled CDL holders, border turmoil testing nearshoring, and Morgan Stanley’s call for a 2026 trucking rebound — all in today’s newsletter.
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🍳What's Cookin' In Freight
📊 What FMCSA Crash Data Actually Says About Non-Domiciled CDL Drivers. FreightWaves' Adam Wingfield breaks down a key point lost in viral posts: FMCSA does not track crashes by citizenship, immigration status, or CDL type. That means there’s no federal data proving non-domiciled CDL drivers are more crash-prone. Crash counts have actually fallen since 2021 even as NDCDL issuance grew, he points out. Fraud cases and inconsistent state licensing are real, but they’re not evidence of higher crash risk. Wingfield says the real issue is a data system that can’t answer the question. Until FMCSA modernizes tracking, the only evidence-based conclusion is: we don’t know, and anyone claiming certainty cannot prove it.
🇲🇽 Border Turmoil Tests Nearshoring Momentum. Mexico’s nearshoring engine hit fresh pressure as farmers and truckers blockaded key highways and border crossings, stalling freight for more than two weeks. Juárez saw the worst impact, with 38,000 truckloads stranded and factories idling workers as supplies ran out. Tensions deepened as Trump threatened a 5% tariff on Mexico over disputed water-treaty deliveries. Yet, Mexico weighed a possible 50% tariff on Chinese goods to win U.S. relief on metals. Protests, water politics, and tariff escalations are reshaping cross-border routing and raising short-term risk for U.S.–Mexico shippers.
📈 Morgan Stanley Sees a 2026 Trucking Rebound Sparked by Supply Tightening. Morgan Stanley says trucking’s next upcycle may ignite in 2026, not from demand, but from capacity loss, with English-proficiency enforcement, NDCDL scrutiny, and CDL-school crackdowns removing 5%+ of capacity. The firm notes every major trucking rebound (2014, 2018, 2020) began with a similar supply shock. Demand remains murky, but early restocking signs are appearing. Morgan Stanley upgraded its freight outlook to Attractive, and sees mid–single-digit contract rate gains in 2026. Top picks for freight stocks: Knight-Swift, GXO, Ryder, CNI, and CPKC.
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AI Is Rewriting Cargo Theft Faster Than Washington Can Respond
Cargo thieves are scaling with AI tech.
A new wave of AI-enabled, remotely orchestrated cargo theft is sweeping the country, with criminals infiltrating load boards, impersonating carriers, hijacking shipments mid-route, and vanishing the freight overseas before law enforcement even knows a crime occurred.
And according to experts, the bad guys are learning faster than the industry can adapt.
"The criminals have identified that the weak point between point A and point B is transportation," said Michael Evanoff, former DHS assistant secretary and now CSO at Verkada. "Why not capture it in transit?"
Since 2020, cargo theft has shifted from truck stop raids to digital manipulation. Criminal rings now scrape load boards for targets, use AI chat tools to impersonate dispatchers and safety managers, and deploy fake MC packets and spoofed IDs to intercept unmarked trucks.
Keith Lewis of Verisk CargoNet says the pandemic was the turning point:
"They took a year off, went to school, came back and reinvented themselves… using the internet to commit acts of fraud."
The results are staggering:
$318M in cargo stolen so far this year
Average loss value: $278,797 per shipment
65% spike in Thanksgiving-period thefts
Active networks tied to 40+ countries
Consumables, household goods, and electronics top the target list
Criminals now operate a parallel global supply chain, Lewis says, one that looks legitimate once goods cross international borders:
"When they get across the ocean… they’re not stolen anymore. There’s no tracking."
This month, Senators Blackburn and Klobuchar introduced the Cargo Security Innovation Act, a bipartisan pilot program to deploy advanced surveillance tech at intermodal hubs: ports, rail yards, and air cargo facilities.
It’s a serious bill with serious endorsements. But it doesn’t touch the fraud vectors hammering brokers daily.
No identity-verification reform
No load-board security standards
No tools for FMCSA or brokers
No response to AI-driven impersonation
No mechanisms for stopping fictitious pickups
It focuses on container security, not the online infiltration fueling modern OTR theft.
The Real Point of Pain
Cargo theft has become a cybercrime, not a parking-lot crime. It’s coordinated, global, tech-driven, and increasingly automated.
And while Washington’s bill is a strong gesture, it’s a solution for the last war, not the one unfolding on brokers’ screens today.
Where We Are Now
DOT Request for Information (2025) – DOT sought industry input on cargo theft trends, impacts, and mitigation strategies. Signals growing federal attention but no rulemaking yet.
Household Goods Shipping Consumer Protection Act (2024–2025) – Would give FMCSA stronger tools to address hostage loads, fake reviews, and identity-shifting scams in the truckload moved goods sector.
Existing federal penalties & task forces – Current CFPB, DHS, and FBI authorities cover interstate fraud and identity theft, but none are tailored to modern AI-enhanced cargo theft.
As Lewis warns:
"The supply chain moves at the speed of light but the bad-guy supply chain moves just as fast."
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⚖️ Slync Appeal Denied. Slync.io founder Chris Kirchner lost his appeal and must serve a 20-year federal sentence for fraud after stealing more than $25 million from investors and employees.
⚡ DHL Tesla Route. DHL deployed a Tesla Semi on a 100-mile daily route in California, testing zero-emission linehaul capability within its West Coast network.
🏭 IKEA Nearshores. IKEA is shifting more manufacturing to the U.S. as rising tariffs push production away from Asia, aiming to cut import costs and shorten supply chains and delivery times.
🛑 Navistar Recall. Navistar recalled roughly 11,000 International trucks over a parking-brake defect that could allow unintended vehicle movement and increase crash risk.
⚙️ SAP Dispute. o9 Solutions accused SAP of stealing trade secrets and attempting to replicate its supply-chain planning software in a newly filed legal challenge.
🤝 Epic Acquires Sentry. Epic Insurance Brokers & Consultants acquired Sentry, expanding its transportation and logistics insurance offerings.
📉 Another Bankruptcy. Laredo-based carrier Texas International Enterprises filed for Chapter 11 on Dec. 6, reporting $10–50 million in assets and liabilities. The company says unsecured creditors will receive no distribution after administrative costs.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FreightCaviar Podcast: Is technology enough to fight freight fraud? What can the industry expect in the year ahead? OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin answers your biggest questions. Catch the episode on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
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I’m Adriana, a writer and editor at FreightCaviar. I’ve covered everything from freight tech to industry lawsuits and market shifts, helping scale us to almost 14K subscribers. My goal: to make logistics stories digestible, clear, and fun to read.
Hello! I'm Jerome FreightCaviar! I’m into the politics of freight and the impact it will have worldwide. I'm always eager to learn more. Follow me on X @JeromeFreightC
Congress is moving to put driverless 80,000-lb trucks on public roads. Plus: 13,000 California CDLs get cancelled, diesel hits a 32-year record, Florida wants $50K to get your truck back, and more.
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Jerome Washington
Adriana Pulley
November 03, 2025 Ole Villadsen, Selena Larson, and the Proofpoint Threat Research Team
