🎣 Fuller vs. Miller

Good Morning. In today's feature, we'll take a look at the freight market debate between FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and Michigan State professor Jason Miller. Plus, a Bay Area EV maker partners with Ryder to test a hybrid diesel system, HappyRobot releases an AI update for brokers, and load board traffic declines over the past 3 months.

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🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

⚡ Revoy Partners with Ryder to Introduce Hybrid EV Solution. Revoy, a Bay Area EV manufacturer, has partnered with Ryder to test its innovative hybrid system that converts diesel trucks into hybrids without any modifications. By using an add-on EV unit that connects to the truck’s fifth wheel, the system allows trucks to switch between electric and diesel seamlessly. Ryder is currently piloting three Revoy EVs on the Arkansas-Texas route, improving fuel efficiency to 20-35 mpg—up from the typical 6-8 mpg. With quick battery swaps at dedicated stations, this solution eliminates charge time and upfront costs. Revoy plans to expand trials in 2025, adding more swap stations in Washington and Texas.

💻 Happyrobot Unveils New AI Update for Freight Brokers. Pablo Palafox, Co-Founder of Happyrobot, has introduced a new AI feature for freight brokers: Carrier Profiles & Capacity Management. This tool captures "dark capacity"—missed opportunities when carriers show interest in loads but aren't logged due to time constraints. With AI, brokers can now track and manage these offers in real time, gaining insights into carrier pricing and lane preferences. This update helps improve load coverage by revisiting past carrier inquiries and optimizing future sourcing, moving Happyrobot closer to fully AI-driven logistics communication.

⚓ Record $1 Trillion in Imports Causing Rail Delays in LA. The Port of Los Angeles is facing its highest rail delays in two years due to a surge in imports caused by strike diversions and conflicts in the Red Sea. Nearly half of rail-bound containers are sitting for more than nine days. While port officials report smooth operations for vessels and trucks, industries like retail and chemicals are feeling the impact. Port Executive Director Gene Seroka noted that imports this quarter are approaching $1 trillion, up from $955 billion last year. DHL’s Geotz Alebrand pointed to a lack of returning rail cars as the main issue and suggested rerouting cargo to East Coast ports, where delays range from 5 to 15 days.

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A Clash of Perspectives: Fuller vs. Miller on the Freight Market

The trucking and freight industry often has differing opinions on market trends, but few compare to the debate between FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and Michigan State supply chain professor Jason Miller.

Their opposing views on the future of freight have gained public attention, sparking interest from industry insiders.

Fuller's Bullish Outlook

On the October FreightWaves State of Freight webinar, CEO Craig Fuller shared his optimistic outlook for the freight industry, stating, “We are at the bottom of the cycle.”

Fuller highlighted several key factors contributing to his prediction of a market recovery.

Key points from Fuller’s analysis:

• Shrinking Capacity: Many trucking companies are going bankrupt, which is reducing capacity. Fuller believes this will help balance supply and demand, driving rates up.
• Tariffs as a Stimulus: Fuller suggests that potential new tariffs, especially under a Trump presidency, could lead companies to import more goods before they take effect, increasing freight demand.

Fuller emphasized that the combination of lower capacity and stronger volume could result in a much healthier freight market in the coming months. "It’s been a pretty strong market," he noted, pointing to early signs of recovery in contract and spot rates.

Miller's More Cautious Stance

While Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State, agrees that the market has likely hit bottom, he remains more cautious than Craig Fuller about a quick recovery.

Miller’s outlook is less optimistic, and he highlights key concerns about the current state of the freight market.

Key points from Miller’s analysis:

• Freight Volumes Still Low: Miller notes that freight volumes remain down year-over-year and disagrees with Fuller’s view of the market as strong. He expects improvements in early 2025 but not a major rebound.
• Minimal Impact of Hurricanes: Both experts agree that recent hurricanes had little impact on freight volumes. However, Miller stresses that the market remains stagnant, with no significant recovery yet.

“I could see the freight market turning more in carriers' favor by late Q1 to early Q2 2025, but I’m less optimistic about 2025 resembling the highs of 2017 or 2021,” Miller said, echoing Arrive Logistics' 2025 forecast, which predicts a slow but steady rate increase as capacity tightens.

Background on the Debate

The debate between Craig Fuller and Jason Miller is nothing new. Their differing perspectives on freight trends have been well-documented, with each drawing both praise and criticism.

Key points from their ongoing clash:

• Miller’s Analysis: Logistics consultant Brittain Ladd once suggested that FreightWaves should hire Miller for more accurate analysis. Former DAT Marketing Director Sandy Cahill has also praised Miller’s independent thinking and ability to challenge misinformation.
• Fuller’s Criticism: Fuller has criticized Miller’s reliance on government data, arguing that it lags behind real-time market trends. He claims Miller missed key moments like the 2020 freight boom and the 2022 recession, often being “two quarters behind.”

Looking ahead to 2025, both experts offer important perspectives.

Fuller remains optimistic about a freight recovery, while Miller’s more cautious view warns that a bounce-back might take longer. With unpredictable factors like market shifts and political changes, the debate highlights just how uncertain the future of freight can be.

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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

📉 Load Board Traffic Declines. Traffic across top load boards like DAT and 123Loadboard dropped, while Truckstop remained steady, possibly due to company closures and shifting subscriptions.

📦 Taking It Slow. A decline in shipping demand has led to a slowdown for UPS and FedEx. More consumers are switching to slower delivery options as opposed to overnight/next-day shipping.

📉 Volvo Profit Decline. Volvo Group's third-quarter profits dropped 28.5% due to weakened demand for trucks in Europe and North America. Volvo recently acquired a cab supplier for its Mack Trucks brand to address supply chain delays.

🎵 Taylor Swift's Shipping Costs. Ever wonder about the cost of shipping Taylor Swift’s tour internationally? It took roughly $15 million to ship stage equipment from the UK to the US.

⛽ Fueling Meth. A canine unit led Border Patrol agents to discover 825 pounds of liquid meth hidden inside the fuel tanks of a semi truck in Indio, California.

🌱 It Pays to Go Green. The EPA is offering more than $125 million in grants to help companies transition from diesel-powered vehicles to zero-emission alternatives.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

• Conferences We Are Attending:
  • F3 Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, November 19-21. Receive $1395 off with our special link!
  • Manifest in Las Vegas, February 10-12. View the newly announced agenda and save $200 on registration by clicking here.
• Latest Freight Jobs: See all the latest freight job listings by clicking here.
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• The FreightCaviar Podcast: Check out this week's FreightCaviar Podcast with Danny, CEO of Rapido Solutions Group, on how nearshoring is reshaping carrier sales.

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