🎣 It's Over.

Good morning, and Happy Veterans Day! 🇺🇸 Today, we’re diving into Craig Fuller’s bold call: “The Great Freight Recession is Over."

Plus: B.C. port lockout talks, a major Florida verdict, a seasonal rate hike in the van market, and more.

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🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

⚓ B.C. Port Lockout: Negotiations Resume. Negotiations have resumed between the BC Maritime Employers Association and ILWU Local 514 to end the lockout at Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and Nanaimo ports, which handle around $576 million in daily trade. The lockout followed ILWU’s strike activity, leaving over 700 supervisors without a contract since March 2023. The BCMEA's final offer includes a 19.2% wage increase over the next four years and an average $21,000 signing bonus, yet staffing and automation issues remain sticking points. With over 100 business groups urging government intervention, both parties face mounting pressure to reach an agreement to prevent further economic impacts. U.S. freight players could see delays and added costs as shippers seek alternate routes, placing extra pressure on U.S. ports if an agreement isn’t reached soon.

🏛 Florida Jury Awards $141 Million in Logging Truck Crash. A Florida jury awarded $141.5 million to three victims of a 2020 multi-vehicle crash caused by K&N Logging trucker Ellis Eugene Trollinger. Plaintiffs argued that K&N Logging failed to properly vet Trollinger despite his extensive criminal history, including DUIs and multiple federal safety violations. Trollinger was reportedly driving a fully loaded logging truck at 67 mph in a 45 mph zone and failed to brake before colliding with traffic. The crash left victims with severe injuries, including permanent brain damage to a young child. The verdict, reached after a four-week trial, includes $125 million in punitive damages against K&N Logging for gross negligence and reckless hiring practices.

🛠 Averitt Expands to Meet Nearshoring Demand. Averitt has expanded its San Antonio facilities with an 85,000-square-foot distribution warehouse, an 80-door cross-dock terminal, and a new maintenance center along I-35, boosting its US-Mexico logistics capabilities. This growth aligns with increased nearshoring demand as companies move operations closer to the US market. Averitt's Texas footprint now exceeds 800,000 square feet, including locations in Dallas, Houston, Austin, Laredo, and more. Ed Habe, Averitt's vice president of Mexico sales, expressed enthusiasm, noting that San Antonio offers a strategic option to accommodate overflow as other centers reach capacity.

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Freight Recession Over? Fuller Declares It’s Time to Celebrate

Is it really over? According to FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller, yes—it’s official: the Great Freight Recession has ended. The call sparked both excitement and skepticism across the freight world. Fuller’s reasoning? Data-backed signs of recovery from his company's proprietary sources: a rise in tender rejections, climbing spot rates, and tightening capacity. However, with one particular supply chain expert urging the industry to stay realistic, the debate continues.

Fuller’s Call: The Recovery is Here!

Fuller points to some pretty solid metrics as the basis for his bold claim:

• Tender Rejections Up: Carriers are rejecting over 6% of tenders, compared to last year’s low of 3.4%, signaling tighter capacity and giving carriers more control.
• Spot Rates Rising: Spot rates have climbed to $1.78 per mile, up from $1.54 last year—a clear sign demand is bouncing back, or at least that available capacity is shrinking.
• Regulatory Impact: The upcoming FMCSA’s Clearinghouse-II regulations could push up to 177,000 drivers out of the market, further tightening capacity and potentially increasing rates.

Fuller believes “carrier revenge” is on the horizon, with carriers finally able to push for better rates after a long, brutal stretch. He predicts this shift, combined with Trump’s pro-freight policies, could make 2025 a year to remember.

While some celebrate Fuller’s upbeat outlook, others in the industry aren’t so quick to pop the champagne.

• Social Media Takes: Responses on social media ranged from optimism to outright skepticism. One user commented, "I think this is a very preemptive celebration. We'll see in time." Another noted that consumers hitting credit limits could dampen demand, making the end of the recession feel “artificial” if driven by tightening supply rather than real growth.
• Jason Miller’s Reality Check: Supply chain professor Jason Miller weighed in, encouraging the industry to temper its excitement. “Credit card delinquency rates are still rising, housing affordability is terrible, and hiring rates have fallen to 2014 levels,” he cautioned. For Miller, while 2025 could be good for carriers, structural concerns in the economy remain, and rising costs from potential tariffs and inflation could complicate a true recovery.

“It’s exciting to see the degree of exuberance the trucking freight community has shown...However, it's also important to keep grounded in the economic realities that haven't changed with the election.” – Jason Miller, Supply Chain Professor, Michigan State University

With Fuller’s data painting an optimistic picture and economic indicators flashing caution, the freight industry finds itself a bit divided.

Whether it’s a genuine recovery or a temporary break from the downturn, we'll watch closely to see if the good times hold—or if the freight roller coaster has more twists ahead.

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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

📦 Amazon's Drone Delivery. Amazon is now offering same-day drone deliveries in Tolleson, AZ. More than 50,000 items are available for delivery, but products have to weigh five pounds or less.

📈 Seasonal Trends. Dry van and reefer spot rates increased in line with seasonal trends, per Truckstop and FTR, while flatbed rates fell. The Market Demand Index rose to 68.1.

🔋 Funding for Electric Charging. A four-state coalition has secured nearly $250 million to install electric truck chargers along the I-95 corridor. The funding will establish 24 freight truck charging sites with 450 charging points.

🚛 Nikola's Hydrogen EV Fleet. Nikola is leading in the deployment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. CEO Steve Girsky says, “It’s not easy,” but hopes others will join in building out the ecosystem.

💪A Strong Start. Nationwide dry van spot rates rose 5% last week. NTIL forecasts that holiday season freight volumes will surpass the Fourth of July peak, exceeding Q2 2024’s highest totals.

📄 Warehouse Collapse Report. Officials found no state or federal violations of standards at a Phoenix warehouse where a microburst of wind caused the roof to collapse, resulting in the death of a 22-year-old worker.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

• Conferences: F3 Future of Freight Festival, November 19-21 in Chattanooga. Get $1395 off with our special link. In February, join us at Manifest Vegas 2025. Register with our link and save $200.
• Freight Jobs: Find the latest freight job listings here.
• Find Shippers Fast: Looking for customers? Check out ShipperCRM, the world's largest shipper database, and create an account.
• Podcast: In this week’s episode of The FreightCaviar Podcast, we sit down with Thomas Mella, President at Sightline Freight Partners, a transportation software consulting company. Watch here.

FREIGHT MEME OF THE DAY

Answer: 10.2% of veterans work in transportation and material moving occupations, compared to 7.1% of non-veterans (Bureau of Labor Statistics).