🎣 Locked Out

Good Thursday morning.

We're looking at the latest insights from CarrierOK on FMCSA authority approvals since the organization has implemented TSA-level checks for new applicants.

• FMCSA’s approval rates have hit a major roadblock.
• New ID checks are reshaping the authority approval landscape.
• How will it impact the market?

All that and more in today's newsletter.

FMCSA’s Approval Rates Tank as New ID Checks Bite

It’s been a rough few months for anyone trying to get motor carrier authority from the FMCSA.

Starting on April 1, 2025, the agency rolled out major changes to its Unified Registration System (URS), including mandatory facial recognition and identity verification through IDEMIA, a security check provider. And the fallout has been swift.

"The fallout rate points to the new identity screening process working as intended..." – CarrierOK

Since the new ID checks became mandatory on April 1, the number of applications making it to the “published” stage—the final hurdle before approval—has plummeted.

CarrierOK, tracking authority filings, reports a 50%+ drop in publication rates since March.

"A 50%+ decline in published authorities in the month after implementing facial ID verification is a dramatic signal that the agency has tightened the funnel." –CarrierOK

Here’s the kicker:

• Total filings are stable. It’s not that fewer people are applying—it’s that fewer are making it through.
• The bottleneck is happening during the new ID verification stage, where bad actors (and maybe some good ones) are getting weeded out.
• Grants are still up year-over-year and month-over-month, but experts warn this is a lagging indicator, reflecting pre-ID-verification applications from February and early March.

What’s Happening Behind the Numbers?

"If you’re brand new to the industry coming into FMCSA for registration for the first time, you now have to go through identity verification." – Director of FMCSA Ken Riddle on Driving Forward Podcast

FMCSA’s overhaul of the URS was designed to stop fraudulent companies from obtaining operating authority. Under the new system, applicants have to pass facial recognition and provide validated personal data—cutting off a key avenue for fake entities.

CarrierOK’s data shows that while total applications haven’t dropped, the percentage making it to the 21-day public comment period has cratered. This suggests a high fallout rate during ID verification.

In other words, April’s grants are a mirage, propped up by applications filed before the rules changed.

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Why This Matters

On paper, stricter verification is a win: it cuts out fraudsters and improves industry safety. But it’s not all sunshine.

• Fraudsters adapt fast. There’s already chatter that shady operators might shift from fresh applications to hijacking dormant or “clean” MCs—reviving old authorities with legit histories.
• Good guys get stuck. Smaller fleets, owner-operators, and those less familiar with digital processes may struggle to clear the new hurdles. This creates a challenge for brokers who rely on a continuous supply of new carriers to meet capacity demands and keep rates competitive.
• Capacity squeeze incoming. Fewer new authorities coming online means tightening capacity, especially as summer shipping heats up.

Expect more headaches in the coming months, as approval delays and the possible slowdown in new carrier onboarding ripple through the system.

What to Watch

“This is a major pivot point for the industry. Fraud prevention measures are working, but we’re also seeing new friction for legitimate players. Expect this story to keep evolving through the summer.”

According to CarrierOK’s projections, the next few months could look like this:

• June: Approval rates drop as the March-April cohorts, withered by ID checks, hit the final stages.
• Summer crunch: A tighter pool of active MCs may drive up rates and make capacity tougher to find, especially for smaller brokers.
• Tactical pivots: Fraudsters may focus more on taking over dormant or aged MCs instead of applying fresh.

Meanwhile, legitimate operators will need to get up to speed on the new system or risk falling behind.

About FMCSA Registration Modernization

FMCSA

"We’ve closed the front door, we’re protecting it, we’re screening who’s coming in. Next will be to clean the house." – Ken Riddle, Director, FMCSA

CarrierOK’s full report (linked below) provides a granular breakdown of the data and what’s coming next. And if you want the short version, check out their LinkedIn post for a quick-hit summary.

👉 CarrierOK’s Full Breakdown
👉 LinkedIn Post

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🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

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