Plus: trucking attorney warns carriers and brokers to tighten compliance, tariffs take a toll on U.S. import volumes, semi-truck orders plunge 44%, and more.
🛡️ Trucking Urged to Audit All Drivers as Non-Domiciled CDL Risk Spikes. Transportation attorney Greg Reed says carriers and brokers should “audit all existing employee or contract drivers” after FMCSA’s September emergency rule cast doubt on non-domiciled CDLs. “Both the regulatory language, and Secretary Duffy’s remarks, cast doubt on the legitimacy of all non-domiciled CDLs,” Reed told FreightWaves, warning plaintiffs will argue companies are now on notice. FMCSA estimates 194,000 of about 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders could exit over two years (~5% of 3.9 million drivers). Reed advises limiting use of these drivers until credentials are confirmed and tightening contract language on licensing and lawful status. TD Cowen’s Jason Seidl called the capacity hit “likely far more impactful” than ELP enforcement, a “late ’26/early ’27 tailwind,” while noting shippers may “pull forward some bids” as attrition looms.
📦 NRF: Frontloading and Tariffs to Keep U.S. Imports Below 2M TEUs Through Year-End. Retailers pulled peak season forward, leaving monthly volumes projected under 2 million TEUs for the rest of 2025, per NRF/Hackett’s Global Port Tracker. “This year’s peak season has come and gone… due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs,” said NRF’s Jonathan Gold. August handled 2.32 million TEUs (-2.9% from July; +0.1% y/y). Forecasts: September 2.12M (-6.8% y/y), October 1.97M (-12.3%), November 1.75 million (-19.2%), December 1.72 million (-19.4%), the weakest since March 2023. New 25% tariffs on furniture/cabinets hit next week and rise in January; the 90-day tariff pause extension expires Nov. 10 absent a deal. Full-year volume is pegged at 24.79 million TEUs (-2.9% vs. 2024) as Morgan Stanley sees consumer-spending growth slowing to 3.7% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024.
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The spot market seems to have caught some needed heat this week.
BobbyLoads broke down on Instagram certain markets around the country, mentioning Los Angeles, Columbus, Harrisburg, Elizabeth, and giving Green Bay, Chicago, and Charlotte favorable mention as well.
The reason? It seems many non-domiciled drivers are afraid of being on the road. ICE has reportedly been spotted at weigh stations and even at some shippers, causing drivers to avoid “unsafe” states and stick to the Midwest and East Coast.
As Adam Wingfield shared from a message he received:
“They’re worried, with all these ICE raids. The drivers are just driving in the states that are considered safe, mostly between Wisconsin, Illinois, and the East Coast. No Texas, Florida, etc.”
That fear may be tightening capacity in certain lanes.
FreightWaves’ Craig Fullercalled the sudden surge “unusual,” noting that tender volumes are flat and rejection rates remain low at 5.5%. “Spot rates are surging without signs of higher demand,” he wrote, suggesting a supply-driven squeeze, not a freight rebound.
Ken Adamo of DAT said the "the market is still very much in a tough spot and these increases are both modest and, in many cases, isolated to certain lanes and markets."
He also noted the bump coincides with End of Month and End of Quarter (EOM/EOQ) effects, which often create short-lived volatility.
FreightCaviar’s own poll showed a split market: 30% said rates are booming, 38% disagreed, and 32% said nothing’s changed.
As broker John Fergusonput it, “It was booming earlier in the week, but that’s no longer the case. Rates have plunged like bricks in a lake.”
For now, the bump looks less like a freight recovery and more like a reaction to fear on the highways.
đźš› Flatbed Carrier Shuts Down Overnight. PE-backed Montgomery Transport filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, shutting down immediately and leaving 1,000 employees, including 600 drivers, out of work.
🏆 Matt Silver Honored. Matt Silver, founder of Cargado and former Forager CEO, was named to Crain’s 40 Under 40 for 2025. Silver thanked mentors Amanda Lannert and Ty Findley, saying he’s “grateful, humbled, and fired up” to keep supporting Chicago’s freight tech founders.
🚢 Trump Eyes Canal. President Trump said he wants the U.S. to “control or buy back” the Panama Canal, claiming it’s vital to national security and trade as tensions rise with China over global shipping routes. But there's more to the story, and Johnny Harris breaks it all down.
đź“Š ELP Safety Study. A new study found carriers with ELP violations are significantly more likely to have poor safety ratings, suggesting language gaps directly affect compliance and crash risk.
🎠Fake Beard CDL Scam. A New York DA says a female defendant wore a fake beard to pose as a male test-taker in a CDL cheating ring that led to seven indictments tied to fraud and identity theft.
🎣THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
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Hello! I'm Jerome FreightCaviar! I’m into the politics of freight and the impact it will have worldwide. I'm always eager to learn more. Follow me on X @JeromeFreightC
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