Why ACT Research Lowered its 2025 Truck Forecasts
ACT Research lowers 2025 truck forecasts as inventory hits record levels. FTR reports July Class 8 orders below expectations, signaling market shifts.

The truck market is shifting gears. Orders are slow despite inventory piling up.

- Class 8 truck orders in July: 12,400 units, down 6% month-over-month and 7% year-over-year
- 2025 forecasts for medium- and heavy-duty trucks revised downward
- Record-high inventory levels for Classes 5-7 and Class 8 trucks
Market Dynamics:
- Inventory Surge
- Strong build rates outpacing retail sales
- Industry backlogs shrinking
- Shifting Fleet Landscape
- Private fleets gain 6% market share from for-hire carriers since early 2023
- For-hire market faces excess capacity despite rising freight volumes
- Economic Factors
- For-hire carrier profitability at "generationally low levels" in Q2 2024
- Upcoming elections and potential Fed rate cuts may lead to defensive decision-making
Expert Insights:
Kenny Vieth, ACT Research president:
"The forecast changes are driven by stagnant, and in some cases worsening, fundamentals."
Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst:
"Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slowing pace."
FTR described the decline as "unsurprising," considering the strong order performance in the first five months of the year and the typically weak seasonal order period.
Looking Ahead:
- Pressure on OEMs to reduce build rates intensifies
- Further reductions in backlogs expected
- Year-to-date order levels slightly below historical averages
The truck market's cooling trend reflects broader economic uncertainties. While 2024 forecasts remain optimistic, the industry braces for potential challenges in 2025.
Source: Fleet Equipment Mag 1, 2