The March LMI reads like 2022 with prices at a 4-year high.
Plus: warehouse arson in California, Mexico's trucker strike enters day three, and broker margins are still underwater.
Happy Hump Day. Freight rates could climb faster than anyone expects. We break down why below.
Plus:
CDL Crackdown Hits Illinois
Top Freight Bottlenecks
LA Port Slows
🤔
Question of the Day: A _______-area interchange (I-294 at I-290/I-88) is now the nation’s worst freight bottleneck. Find the answer below.
Today's Newsletter is Brought to You By OTR Solutions.
🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight
🚨 CDL Crackdown Hits Illinois. Federal regulators are escalating their crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs, warning Illinois it could lose up to $128.6M in highway funding. A federal audit found major compliance failures, including the issuance of licenses to foreign nationals whose legal status had expired and weak verification procedures. Illinois has been ordered to pause the issuance of new and renewed non-domiciled CDLs, audit records, and revoke noncompliant licenses. Similar warnings were issued to North Carolina, California, and Pennsylvania as part of a broader enforcement push. Failure to comply could trigger funding cuts or full decertification of the state’s CDL program.
🚛 Chicago Tops Freight Bottlenecks. A Chicago-area* interchange (I-294 at I-290/I-88) is now the nation’s worstfreight bottleneck, overtaking Fort Lee, NJ, in ATRI’s latest rankings. Congestion is worsening nationwide, with peak truck speeds averaging 33.2 mph and 75% of the top 100 bottlenecks below 45 mph. Atlanta remains a major pain point, claiming four of the top 10 spots. The gridlock adds billions in supply chain costs and delays freight reliability. Targeted infrastructure investment remains the clearest path to relief.
⚓ LA Slows While Gulf Gains Ground. Container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles fell 12% year over year in January as trans-Pacific demand cooled following last year’s tariff-driven surge. Imports dropped 13%, with elevated inventories and cautious restocking weighing on throughput. The slowdown contrasts with stronger activity along the Gulf Coast, where ports like Houston are seeing rising volumes and tighter capacity.
Tender rejections (which measure how often carriers refuse contracted loads) justcrossed 14%.
And it’s happening in mid-February, historically one of the softest periods of the freight calendar.
Rates are ticking up, not because freight is booming, but because there are fewer trucks. Some carriers exited, compliance tightened, and capacity shrank.
This isn’t a boom. It’s a tightening. And tightening markets shift leverage fast.
Early Signals Are Already Here
Several forces are converging at once:
Tender rejections are climbing despite a seasonal lull
Spot and linehaul rates rising even as shipments decline
Compliance enforcement is tightening the driver pool
“Rejections near 14% in February… normally one of the worst months for freight.”
Cass data reinforce the shift: shipments fell to levels not seen since 2009, yet linehaul rates rose and have increased year over year for 13 consecutive months. That’s not demand strength, that’s capacity tightening.
Analysts Are Turning Bull
Chris Pickett, Chief Commercial Officer at Flock Freight & Founder of Pickett Research, recently raised guidance for truckload rates, with forecasts suggesting:
+20–30% from current levels
potential +40%+ year over year if tightening accelerates
Those numbers may sound aggressive, but they fall within historical cycle ranges. If the year holds near current levels, the market could already be halfway to those projections.
We’re hearing the same tone shift elsewhere.
David Spencer, VP of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, who we interviewed in January, told us he was “kinda bullish” on 2026.
After last week’s jobs report, he said he is very bullish, noting lower trucking employment is “one more data point supporting a new cycle” and that a larger disruption could arrive this summer.
Why This Turn Feels Different
Previous upcycles were driven by demand surges. This one is being shaped by supply pressure.
Carrier bankruptcies continue to mount. Financing costs remain elevated. Enforcement around non-domiciled CDLs and driver qualification standards is tightening. Each of these factors raises barriers to entry while removing marginal capacity.
At the same time, freight is shifting rather than booming. Gulf Coast volumes are strengthening while West Coast imports are softening, underscoring that the recovery is uneven.
What It Means for Brokers
A tightening market without strong demand growth creates volatility rather than a clean rebound.
Expect contract coverage to become less predictable. Carriers will grow more selective. Spot spikes will arrive suddenly. Reliable capacity and strong carrier relationships will matter more than ever.
The freight market isn’t roaring back. But the balance of power is quietly shifting.
And those who recognize the shift early will feel the advantage first.
Rapidois a top nearshore staffing company providing logistics and supply chain talent to companies in the United States. Based in Guadalajara, Mexico, Rapido offers a unique combination of cost savings and access to a skilled workforce, making it an attractive option for American logistics businesses.
See what makes nearshoring to Mexico an attractive option for scaling a logistics company and how partnering with Rapido Solutions Group simplifies the whole process.
đź’¨ Texas Winds Flip Truck. Powerful Panhandle gusts overturned a semi near Dumas, Texas.
🏗️ AIT Sells Stake. AIT Worldwide Logistics sold a majority stake to Greenbriar Equity Group to fund expansion and accelerate global growth.
đźš› Estes Buys Key. Estes Logistics expanded its regional footprint with the acquisition of Key Trucking.
⚖️ Forwarder Sentenced. A Virginia freight forwarder was sentenced for illegally exporting restricted U.S. goods to Russia.
🚨 Cocaine Seized at Border. Authorities discovered $6.8M worth of cocaine hidden in a flower shipment at the Texas border.
🤖 AI Fraud Surges. AI-driven scams jumped 1,210% in 2025, using deepfakes and automation to impersonate people and target real-time payments and system access.
🎣 The FreightCaviar Podcast
The non-domiciled CDL ruling could reshape driver supply and tighten capacity. Rob Carpenter of TruckSafe explains what it means for fleets, compliance, and rates on this week’s podcast.
The March LMI reads like 2022 with prices at a 4-year high.
Plus: warehouse arson in California, Mexico's trucker strike enters day three, and broker margins are still underwater.
“I used to hate a freight broker. All they're trying to do is take my money. That was the attitude… until you realize that if there's a load of freight, whether it’s intermodal, brokerage, or assets, the load is going to go the way it’s supposed to go. You can fight it, but you’ll go broke.”
The contract cushion brokers relied on is nearly gone. Here's what that means for your margins. Plus: FMCSA is pulling ELDs fast, Hormuz cracks open - barely, $821k ghost load scheme, and more.
Keep up with the freight broker world in 5 minutes.
Join over 14K+ subscribers to get the latest freight news and entertainment directly in your inbox for free. Subscribe & be sure to check your inbox to confirm (and your spam folder just in case).
