The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Freight margins are razor-thin. The brokerages surviving it built nearshore teams that actually work.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
Plus: FBI taps brokers for fraud intel, lawsuits push trucking costs up, brokerage activity turns negative — and more in today’s newsletter.
TGIF. Credit stress is spreading in freight. BMO’s Q4 data shows rising impairments and a shrinking trucking portfolio. Today's feature breaks down what this credit squeeze means for brokers heading into 2026.
Plus:
📉 Freight Brokerage Count Slipped Again in November. Kevin Hill of Brush Pass Research says active brokerages fell by 36 last month, the second consecutive drop. The wild 5-year growth swings of the past, from the 2014 bond purge to the pandemic surge peaking at 70% in 2022, have cooled to a modest 6.9% today. Most long-term comps remain negative: -2.5% YoY, -13.8% over 2 years, and -19.1% over 3 years. Since July, monthly changes have been mostly flat, and 2025 shows a net decline of just 390 brokerages. A slow, grinding reset continues.
🛡️ TIA to Pipeline Freight Fraud Intel to FBI. The Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA) is creating a unified reporting channel to funnel truckload theft and freight-fraud data directly to the FBI, aiming to counter what executives call an unprecedented surge in organized criminal activity targeting brokers and carriers. TIA says members routinely face double-brokering rings, stolen identities, and coordinated cargo theft schemes, but lack a centralized way to escalate cases. The new initiative will aggregate verified incident data, patterns, and financial losses, giving federal investigators a clearer picture of national fraud networks. With fraud accelerating across the spot market, TIA says brokers need a stronger, faster path to law-enforcement action.
⚖️ ATRI Flags Litigation Surge Squeezing Trucking Costs. A new ATRI report warns that lawsuit abuse is becoming a major financial drag on trucking, with tort cases rising nearly 4% annually and nuclear verdicts inflating operating costs across the supply chain. ATRI found 44% growth in damage awards, driven by claims tied to hiring practices, safety documentation, and even data generated by onboard tech, information that can be weaponized against carriers despite improving safety. ATRI says excessive litigation is diverting resources that should support operations and driver safety. ATA echoed the alarm, calling for legal reforms as third-party litigation funding fuels bigger awards and higher insurance and freight costs.
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Impaired loans are rising, allowances are rising, and net write-offs are ticking up.
We’ve been waiting for the "blood in the water" to dry up excess capacity. BMO Transportation Finance confirms it’s happening: trucking credit metrics are sliding, and their book of business is shrinking.
By The Numbers:
What is it? BMO Transportation Finance (formerly the transportation finance unit of GE Capital) is a dominant lender to the North American trucking industry.
Why it matters: Their portfolio is approximately 90% trucking company clients. Unlike general indices, BMO’s books represent the raw financial health of the actual asset owners.
For brokers and carriers, this matters more than it may seem. When lenders get skittish, cash gets tighter, borrowing costs rise, and even healthy operators end up squeezed.
Higher impairments + higher allowances + loan book contraction = lenders are preparing for more trouble and tightening credit exposure to trucking.
Banks are turning off the capital tap. Without credit, struggling carriers can no longer survive on cash flow alone. This financial "flush" is painful, but it is the necessary mechanism to tighten capacity and stabilize rates as we head into 2026.
A new SimplyWall.st breakdown of RXO highlights weakening credit ratios and softer interest coverage, nothing catastrophic, but a sign that investors expect a tougher financial environment for brokerages heading into 2026.
CRST is redeploying part of its OTR fleet as part of a broader restructuring. This move is a direct response to the market's current supply/demand imbalance.
Craig Fuller even issued a correction and apology to CRST over earlier reporting, underscoring just how sensitive the industry is to any hint of financial stress.
Old Dominion posted another bump in yields, but even they couldn’t escape volume softness. When the most disciplined carrier in LTL can’t grow tonnage, it’s a sign the freight market’s foundation is still shaky.
Put it all together, and a pattern emerges:
The operators who enter 2026 with clean books, controlled costs, and steady cash flow will be the ones who actually benefit when demand rebounds.
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🚨 DPS Discovery. Texas DPS found 23 people stowed away in a sleeper berth after stopping a semi whose driver lacked a CDL; the truck was seized, and the driver detained.
📝 English Violations. FMCSA data shows English-proficiency violations persist, but carriers aren’t being shut down because most infractions fall on individual drivers rather than rising to out-of-service thresholds.
⚖️ Liability Spike. ATRI found pre-crash negligence, like poor maintenance or inadequate hiring, can triple a trucking company’s liability exposure in post-crash litigation.
🚫 No Booting. A new North Carolina law makes booting commercial vehicles illegal, banning private companies from immobilizing trucks over parking disputes.
💳 Payment Automation. Sunnybrook TMS and Tank Payments launched an integrated payment system that automates carrier settlements and reduces manual processing for freight brokers.
📈 Used Sales Up. Used Class 8 truck sales posted a fifth straight year-over-year gain, reflecting demand for lower-cost equipment amid tight budgets and delayed new-truck purchases.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FREIGHT HUMOR
The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
Congress is moving to put driverless 80,000-lb trucks on public roads. Plus: 13,000 California CDLs get cancelled, diesel hits a 32-year record, Florida wants $50K to get your truck back, and more.
Ryan Schreiber breaks down everything about strategy, relationships, mindset, and AI in logistics.
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