⚠️ 2024 Freight Market Predictions

Good Wednesday morning. We're bringing you insights from seven freight CEOs and Founders as they share their 2024 freight market predictions. Also, catch highlights on TFI's strategic acquisition, C.H. Robinson's CFO transition, and the shift that 2023 brought to autonomous trucking. Plus, don't miss insights on Maersk's Red Sea navigation and the Pentagon's stance on Chinese port tech.

Poll of the Day: Will the freight market improve in 2024? Click here to vote.

In today's email:

• Three Freight Headlines: TFI's Daseke buyout boosts stocks, C.H. Robinson's CFO exits, and autonomous trucking changes guards.
• CEO Freight Market Predictions for 2024
• Around the Freight Web: Maersk returns to Red Sea, U.S. counters Chinese port surveillance, and Ramaswamy pitches trucker-first policies.
• Freight Meme of the Day

TOP LANE MOVERS POWERED BY GREENSCREENS.AI

*Greenscreens.ai, forecasts real-time truckload buy prices that are suited to each freight brokerage's purchasing power using AI and machine learning. Its engine takes into account over 130 attributes and data points in each rate forecast.

🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

📈 TFI Acquires Daseke, Stock Soars. TFI International, a leader in North American logistics, acquires Daseke Inc. for $1.1 billion, doubling TFI's truckload revenue to $3.6 billion. Daseke, known for its flatbed truckload services and aggressive growth through acquisitions, brings a fleet of approximately 4,900 tractors and 11,000 trailers to TFI's already extensive logistics network. The deal involves purchasing Daseke's shares at a 69% premium. Following the announcement, Daseke’s stock soared by 65.2%, while TFI's shares rose by 6.25%. TFI is contemplating spinning off its TL unit into a separate entity. This move may signal a trend towards larger, more integrated trucking enterprises with a broadened service portfolio.

💼 C.H. Robinson CFO Sets Departure. C.H. Robinson announces CFO Mike Zechmeister's planned departure in 2024, initiating a search for his successor. Zechmeister, who joined the logistics firm in 2019, will remain on board until a new CFO is named or by May 31, 2024, at the latest. CFO David Bozeman says Zechmeister's leadership has fortified the company's financial department, ensuring enduring success.

🤖 Driverless Truck Leaders Emerge Amid Regulatory Shifts. In 2023, the autonomous trucking industry reshaped as Embark, Waymo Via, and TuSimple exited due to financial hurdles and legal woes, paving the way for Aurora Innovation, Kodiak Robotics, and Torc Robotics to lead. Amidst these shifts, California Governor Newsom vetoed a pivotal bill on driverless truck regulation. This bill, focusing on vehicles over 10,001 pounds, would have mandated a human safety operator and required detailed reporting after any collision. The veto is seen as a win for driverless trucking and a loss for trucker unions as California shifts its approach to the industry.

TOGETHER WITH RAPIDO

Rapido is a top nearshore staffing company providing logistics and supply chain talent to companies in the United States. Based in Guadalajara, Mexico, Rapido offers a unique combination of cost savings and access to a skilled workforce, making it an attractive option for American logistics businesses.

See what makes nearshoring to Mexico an attractive option for scaling a logistics company and how partnering with Rapido Solutions Group simplifies the whole process.

CEO Freight Market Predictions for 2024

At the beginning of 2023, we asked three freight CEOs for their predictions for this past year. Building on that, we asked seven freight CEOs and Founders about their outlook for 2024.

Tim Higham, CEO, AscendTMS

• Prediction: "Hold on tight, as 2024 is going to SUCK even more than 2023... profit margins are down, rates are down, employee counts are down, and net-new business formation is down... by the end of 2024, we’ll see things getting better... conserve your cash, shed debt, fire non-profitable customers."

Nicole Glenn, Founder & CEO, Candor Expedite

• Prediction: "Summer threw us a curveball with high fuel prices, but fall brought relief... The shipper's market could keep rolling until at least the latter part of 2024. The shift to a carrier's market is up in the air, depending on conflicts, economic ups and downs, and environmental factors."

Steve Kochan, President, HaulPay

• Prediction: "There should be plenty of opportunity for tech and automation-enabled, efficient operators. I expect the market rates to continue to bounce around the 'bottom'... Expect the goods economy to stay in a cool stasis... Specialty finance options will continue to be an attractive alternative."

Nate Cross, Co-Founder, Freight360

• Prediction: "I’ve seen rates start to slowly creep up over the past couple of months, and I expect this will continue into 2024. With companies continuing to close, the gap between supply and demand will shrink and lead us back to a sense of normalcy, but not overnight."

Dennis Brown, Founder, Freight Broker Boot Camp

• Prediction: "Three big factors are interest rates, the price of oil, and it's an election year. I see freight tonnage increasing and rates to follow starting Q2/Q3. The market has self-corrected the supply and demand delta, so most of the bad news and headlines are in the rear-view mirror."

Steve Cox, President, Steam Logistics

• Prediction: "2023 was tough, but 2024 might be something we look back on and say, 'We did our best work in 2023.' I truly believe we have seen a bottom. Capacity is leaving the market but slower than expected. A mid-year pickup could be the best we can expect with inventory levels continuing to diminish."

Matt O'Mara, CEO, Whimsy Intermodal

• Prediction: "Anticipating a rebound in freight activity during the second and third quarters of 2024, driven by heightened manufacturing levels... The trucking industry's capacity is undergoing a healthy cycle... Despite concerns over $1 trillion credit card debt, consumer stability remains evident, fostering optimism for resilience throughout 2024."

Follower Predictions

FreightCaviar conducted polls across our social media platforms, asking our audience if they expect the freight market to improve in 2024. With 2,834 total responses, here are the results:

• Yes: 55.3%
• No: 44.7%

Users also left comments explaining their votes:

Today's newsletter features excerpts from our expert predictions. To get the full scope of the forecasts, head to our website.

GET INTEGRATED WITH OTR SOLUTIONS BROKER SERVICES

The trucking industry is crazy right now, and being a broker can be stressful. Managing your invoices, billing, collecting, carrier-base, and cashflow can feel like an impossible task, but OTR Solutions has figured out the impossible.

They eliminate cash flow problems for carrier payments and ensure margin funding in just 24 hours with broker invoice factoring. OTR Solutions takes care of billing and collection processes with your shippers. With lightning-quick and accurate invoicing, your customers will never need another broker to handle their freight needs. Kick back, relax, and let OTR take care of your brokerage.

If you want to know more, check them out here or text “OTRFC” to 80483 to see what they can do for your business.

AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

🚢 Maersk's Red Sea Return. Maersk prepares to resume Red Sea routes under US-led protection, stabilizing freight rates from Shanghai to Western Europe amid Houthi attacks.

🇨🇳 US Blocks Chinese Port Tech. US Congress bans the Pentagon's use of ports with China's LOGINK platform, aiming to protect the military supply chain from Beijing's surveillance.

🚚 Ramaswamy's Trucking Vision. Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy unveils trucker-friendly policies at Iowa 80.

🌉 US-Mexico Border Ports Reopened. CBP reopens key freight train ports of entry at the US-Mexico border, resuming vital rail operations and supply chain movement.

🐟 Holiday Freight Insights. Ken Adamo shares 'Feast of the Seven Fishes' inspired freight insights, offering data on US and Canada dry van shipments.

FREIGHT CONFERENCES WE'RE ATTENDING

Manifest Vegas, February 5 - 7, 2024, is the world's largest global supply chain & logistics tech event, bringing together Fortune 500 global supply chain executives, logistics service providers, cutting-edge startups, venture investors, and technology leaders.  Join 4,500+ supply chain innovators to foster new strategies and relationships. Receive $200 off your ticket with our exclusive link.

FREIGHT MEME OF THE DAY

Also, check out:

• 🎧 The FreightCaviar Podcast. Listen to this week's podcast on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.
• ☕️ FreightCaviar Essentials. Purchase a FreightCaviar hoodie, long-sleeve, or mug by clicking here.
• 🎧 The Bootstrapper's Guide to Logistics is a podcast that highlights and inspires supply chain entrepreneurs, sharing their stories and building a community from the ground up.
• Want to get your brand noticed by freight brokers? FreightCaviar can help. Work with us to get your services featured in our newsletter, podcast, and more. Plus, we write great articles about what you do. Get in touch with Paul at pbj@freightcaviar.com to learn more.