The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Freight margins are razor-thin. The brokerages surviving it built nearshore teams that actually work.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
Plus: Minnesota’s carrier shutdown fallout, RXO’s widening gap with CH Robinson, an Illinois English-proficiency fight, and more in today’s newsletter.
Good Monday morning. Today’s feature looks ahead to the geopolitical forces colliding to shape 2026's import landscape.
Plus:
❌ Minnesota Shutdowns & CDL Fallout. Two Minnesota carriers, MinStar Transport and Transport Design, closed suddenly over the weekend, idling about 200 drivers and adding to 2025’s widening list of recession-driven failures. The shutdowns stem from mounting financial strain inside True North Equity Partners’ trucking portfolio. At the same time, Minnesota halted all non-domiciled CDL issuance after USDOT warned the state could lose $30.4 million for improperly issuing licenses. A federal audit found one-third of reviewed non-dom CDLs were issued illegally.
📉 RXO Outlook Darkens as CH Robinson Pulls Ahead. FreightWaves reports the financial gap between public brokerage giants RXO and C.H. Robinson widened again after S&P Global shifted RXO to a negative outlook, contrasting sharply with CHRW’s recent upgrade to BBB+. RXO remains at BB (non-investment grade), and S&P now sees a one-in-three chance of a downgrade within 12 months as weak freight demand and rising purchased-transportation costs continue to pressure margins. C.H. Robinson, by comparison, boasts an FFO-to-debt ratio above 45%, strong profits, and a stock up 46% YoY. RXO is down nearly 50% and still wrestling with Coyote integration synergies that S&P says aren’t enough to offset truckload softness.
🚨 IL Rep. Says English-Proficiency Violations Are “Outrageous.” Illinois Rep. Mary Miller is backing federal efforts to withhold highway funds from states that fail to enforce CDL English-proficiency rules, and she says her own plain-clothes visits to local truck stops confirmed the problem firsthand. Miller told The Center Square she asked cashiers how many truckers “speak no English,” and claims she was told “almost all of them,” calling the situation “outrageous.” Illinois State Police data shows the state is responsible for nearly 1 in 5 ELP violations nationwide, adding fuel to her push for penalties under the Safe Driving Law Act. State officials insist they already enforce federal CDL standards, but Miller argues that without cutting funding and holding trucking companies accountable, violations won’t stop.
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The biggest wildcard for 2026 freight may continue to be trade policy.
On Friday, during a White House press event, President Donald Trump openly said he may let the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement expire or renegotiate it altogether.
"It expires in about a year, and we’ll either let it expire or we’ll maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada." — President Donald Trump
For an agreement that governs $1.7T in annual North American trade, even the suggestion of letting it lapse in 2036 sends shockwaves through manufacturing, agriculture, automotive, and nearshoring circles right now.
If USMCA enters a messy renegotiation or collapses, the freight implications hit fast:
USMCA underpins the cross-border freight that keeps U.S. trucks full. Mexico is now America’s largest trading partner. If tariffs return on autos, electronics, machinery, agriculture, or components, volumes will shift fast.
Trump framed his position as part of a broader tariff strategy:
"Mexico and Canada have taken advantage of the United States… they’d be building their plants in Mexico and other places. Now because of tariffs, they’re all coming back."
The takeaway: 2026 may not be the stable year needed for cross-border networks.
"...Uncertainty is already hurting investment." – Diego MarroquĂn Bitar, USMCA Trade Policy Strategist
The Loadstar reports that when Suez Canal transits resume, possibly early 2025, the recovery won’t be smooth. Carriers expect a delayed congestion wave as ships arrive out of sync after a year of Cape rerouting.
ING says that a full Red Sea reopening in 2026 would lower costs and restore shorter transit times, but not without turbulence. Carriers would need to recalibrate networks, reposition equipment, and unwind a year of schedule distortion.
Translation: expect timing chaos, especially on Asia → U.S. East Coast routes.
Adriana Pulley
TTNews reports top U.S. and Chinese officials pledged to work toward a trade deal — a positive signal, but far from settled. Until there's a concrete agreement, importers will keep hedging between China, Southeast Asia, and Mexico.
That means rolling surges, not a clean recovery.
In sum, 2026 is shaping up to be a collision of global variables impacting imports: a shaky USMCA, an unstable ocean routing reset, and unresolved trade tensions.
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🧪 Pace CEO Change. Ken Beyer will step into the CEO role at Pace Analytical Services, thus leaving his role at Transportation Insight, Nolan Transportation Group (NTG), and the Beon platform.
📦 Ryder Strategy Shift. Ryder System is leaning on Southeast expansion and renewed M&A plans to reshape its contract-logistics business, currently Ryder is projects to make $14.4 billion in revenue ($657.9 million in earnings) by 2028.
🏠Ocado Payout. Ocado secured a $350 million payment from Kroger tied to the closure of 3 automated warehouses. Ocado will continue to work with Kroger and its 5 remaining sites, including a sixth in Phoenix which is opening next year.
đź’° USPS Bribery Plea. Zechariah Yi, a former Senior Network Operations Analyst for the USPS admitted to accepting $1.5 million in bribes in exchange for steering trucking contracts, federal prosecutors said. He faces up to 15 years in federal prison.
🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER
FREIGHT HUMOR
The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
Congress is moving to put driverless 80,000-lb trucks on public roads. Plus: 13,000 California CDLs get cancelled, diesel hits a 32-year record, Florida wants $50K to get your truck back, and more.
Ryan Schreiber breaks down everything about strategy, relationships, mindset, and AI in logistics.
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