🎣 End of Freight Recession?

Happy Friday. Is the freight market stabilizing, or simply holding its breath? Mixed predictions from ACT Research and RXO reveal a recovery that may be slower and more fragile than it appears.

Plus:

NY Novelis Aluminum Plant on Fire Again
FMCSA’s 2026 Bond Crackdown
USPS Shipping Prices Hike

📢

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Today's Newsletter is Brought to You by **CtrlChain**.

🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight

🔥 Novelis Fire Raises Fresh Concerns for Ford’s Restart Timeline. A second fire at the Novelis plant has created new uncertainty for Ford just as the automaker was preparing for production to resume. Novelis declined to say whether the latest incident will affect its restart schedule, leaving suppliers and OEMs waiting for clarity. Ford said on Nov. 20 that it is “working with Novelis to learn more” and is still assessing the operational impact. The timing is significant: one day earlier, CFO Sherry House told investors the restart was “on track” for Thanksgiving or early December. With another setback now in play, Ford shares fell nearly 4% midday Tuesday as concerns over material flow and production timing resurfaced.

🚨 FMCSA’s 2026 Bond Crackdown Is About to Squeeze Brokers. FMCSA’s new broker rules hit Jan. 16, 2026, turning the $75,000 bond into a strict, real-time requirement. If a broker’s bond dips below the threshold, FMCSA will suspend operating authority within 7 business days. No grace period, no quiet fixes. BMC-85 trusts now must be 100% cash-backed, pushing many brokers to scramble for new coverage or pay higher premiums. The timing couldn’t be worse: brokers are already battling thin margins, rising spot costs, and slow contract resets. One big unpaid claim could shut a brokerage down overnight. Carriers are getting stronger protections, but many brokers may not be able to survive the eventual shift.

🛰️ New Cognosos Cargo Security Index Reveals Rising Theft Rings & Fraud Hotspots. Cognosos has released its first Cargo Security Index under the new brand, offering a real-time view into U.S. cargo theft patterns using IoT tracking data and field intelligence. The latest report flags a $4.5 million theft ring in California and a $1 million+ freight-fraud case tied to double-brokering, clear signs that organized crime is exploiting industry gaps as key FMCSA safety rules remain delayed until 2026. The Index shows where shippers face the highest risk and how tools like geofenced tracking, automated incident reporting, and always-on visibility can turn regulatory lag into proactive protection.

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Is the Freight Recession Really Ending...or Is the Recovery Still Too Fragile to Trust?

Freight analysts are signaling the end of the recession, but the data isn’t uniform. New forecasts from ACT Research point to stabilization in 2025, while RXO warns that the industry is heading toward 2026 with one of the most fragile capacity environments in years. The contradiction leaves brokers, carriers, and shippers reading mixed signals at a moment when stability matters most.

A Quiet End to the Freight Recession. Is ACT Research Is Right?

ACT Research, DAT, and Freight Transportation Research expect 2025 to deliver a modest recovery: roughly 2% GDP growth, stabilizing or rising contract rates, and slightly stronger tonnage. Capacity is finally contracting after two years of exits, and private fleets are slowing their insourcing efforts.

Tim Denoyer of ACT summed up the shift:

“The market is very close to balance… the for-hire rate recession is finally over.”

Key drivers behind the forecasted improvement:

Significant carrier exits in 2024 have started to rebalance supply.
Normalizing equipment markets should ease cost pressures.
Pre-tariff inventory builds could temporarily lift demand.
Rates are expected to drift higher, even without a boom.

For ACT, these points align with their opinions: gradual stabilization, not acceleration.

RXO: The Recovery Exists...But It’s Fragile

RXO’s Curve report tells a more cautious story. Spot rates were only up 1.8% year over year in Q3, marking the third straight quarter of cooling rate gains. Volumes remain muted, carrier costs remain elevated, and seasonal inflections have been too weak to break the market out of its range-bound pattern.

Corey Klujsza of RXO characterized the situation bluntly:

“Muted freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and low spot rates that haven’t been able to sustain momentum.”

RXO flags several risks that could make 2026 volatile rather than stable:

Regulatory crackdowns on non-domiciled CDL holders and English-language proficiency.
Insurance resistance toward underwriting carriers who rely on affected drivers.
Below-replacement truck ordering, which tightens future capacity.
Private fleet pullbacks, reversing pandemic-era insourcing.

Jared Weisfeld, RXO’s chief strategy officer, warns the industry is entering 2026 with:

“The most fragile capacity environment in two years.”

RXO expects rates to remain inflationary but not strong enough to meaningfully shift shipper behavior, unless demand spikes or regulatory exits accelerate.

Two Forecasts, One Industry: Why the Signals Conflict

ACT sees a balanced market emerging. RXO sees a structurally fragile supply side.
Both can be true:

Demand is normalizing but not growing meaningfully.
Carrier exits are stabilizing pricing but tightening capacity in unpredictable ways.
Spot rates are improving, yet still struggling to clear contract levels.
Shippers still enjoy routing-guide stability, but carriers are absorbing margin pressure.

The result is a market that is improving statistically, yet remains vulnerable to shocks.

Why the Story Isn’t Just About Rates

Today’s conflicting forecasts a recurring industry theme: recovery without confidence.

The 2025 State of the Supply Chain report from Infios finds a widening gap between what companies believe about their resilience and what customers actually trust. Technology investment is accelerating, but consumer skepticism is rising. Resilience alone is no longer enough.

To understand how these tensions will define 2026, the full Infios report breaks down the trust gap shaping every supply chain decision this year.

You can read the report here.

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🌎 Around The Freight Web

🔋 Battery Meth. Authorities found $2.6 million worth of meth hidden inside a commercial truck’s load of batteries during an inspection, seizing the cargo and detaining the driver.

🦎 Multi-State Licenses. Border Patrol arrested a 29-year-old Uzbek truck driver after an I-10 crash in Arizona and found he carried five licenses from various states. Officials say he reentered the U.S. after a 2023 removal order.

🤝 Kodiak–ZF Growth. Kodiak bought 100 ZF ReAX redundant steering systems as it ramps production for 2026. The ReAX units are integrated into Driver-equipped trucks and upfitted by Roush in Michigan, providing fail-safe steering for autonomous operations.

🔐 Cyber Risk Rising. A new survey found seven in ten companies view supply chain cyber threats as a major concern, citing vulnerabilities in vendors, logistics tech, and third-party data access.

🦃 Turkey Spill. Dozens of live turkeys wandered across I-77 in Charlotte, NC after a semi-truck crash, forcing traffic closures while crews worked to recover the birds and clear the roadway.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

FreightCaviar Podcast: We sat down with Ty Schroeder, Account Specialist at BBI Logistics, discussing where the market is headed, how BBI stays ahead of cargo theft, and what he believes brokers need to understand to build stronger relationships with carriers. The episode is up now on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
Join Us At Manifest. Secure your spot now among the best of the best in supply chain and logistics before prices increase Friday, November 21st, to save $900 off the on-site price at ManifestVegas.com/FreightCaviar
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