🎣 Freight Industry Reacts to Trump's Win

Plus: freight brokerage exits slow, a Miami trucking company and affiliates shut down, and earnings are out for RXO and Trimble.

🎣 Freight Industry Reacts to Trump's Win

Good morning. Now that the trucking industry has had time to react to Trump's re-election, we've gathered their thoughts on what his second term could mean for the industry.

Plus: Freight brokerage exits slow, a Miami trucking company and affiliates shut down, and earnings are out for RXO and Trimble.


Today's Newsletter is Brought to You by CtrlChain.

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*Greenscreens.ai, forecasts real-time truckload buy prices that are suited to each freight brokerage's purchasing power using AI and machine learning. Its engine takes into account over 130 attributes and data points in each rate forecast.


🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

Image Source: Kevin Hill/LinkedIn

📉 Freight Brokerage Decline Slows; Recovery Remains Uncertain. For the first time this year, the sharp drop in freight brokerage authorities has slowed. Data from Carrier Details and Kevin Hill's Brush Pass Research shows a 10.9% decline year-over-year, but this is the first pause in the downward trend for 2024. It could be an early sign that we’re hitting the bottom, though it’s still too soon to call it a recovery. Looking further back, the industry’s consolidation remains significant, with 17.5% fewer active brokerages than two years ago. So, while this stabilization offers some relief, the broader market still needs a serious shift before we see true growth return, Hill explains.

🚚 Star Transportation Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Miami’s Star Transportation and five affiliates, collectively operating 411 drivers and 233 trucks, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure amid financial strain. Owner Victor Khramov cited skyrocketing fuel, repair, and insurance costs. The company, which has faced three fatalities in recent years, reported assets up to $1 million and liabilities as high as $50 million. An emergency agreement approved by Judge Corali Lopez-Castro allows Star Transportation to continue operations through a factoring agreement with RTS Financial. Additionally, a lawsuit by former employees alleges misclassification of workers, intensifying Star’s legal and financial challenges. Note: Despite the filing, Star Transportation is still operating at the time of this writing.

🚚 Trimble and RXO Q3 Reports. Trimble Inc. and RXO reported mixed results for Q3 amid a challenging freight environment. Trimble’s transportation segment grew 1.4% to $195 million (totaling $875 million), supported by double-digit recurring revenue growth, record Q3 bookings, and a divestiture of its telematics unit to Platform Science, where it will hold a 32.5% stake. Despite an 8.5% overall revenue dip, Trimble exceeded Wall Street earnings expectations ($864 million). RXO, newly merged with Coyote Logistics, saw a $20 million operating loss, affected by integration costs, but achieved revenue gains in truck brokerage and last-mile services, up 10.8% and 4.7% respectively.


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Freight Industry Reacts to Donald Trump's Win

Out of 343 participants in our Instagram poll, 54% believe the freight market will improve, 31% think it will stay the same, and 14% expect it to worsen under Trump.

Donald J. Trump is headed back to the White House, and social and traditional media sources are churning out a ton of perspectives. From soaring stocks to tariff talk, here’s what industry insiders are saying and what it could mean for U.S. freight.

Stock Prices: Freight Stocks on a Tear

Freight stocks took off on Wednesday, with key names in trucking seeing big bumps on Wednesday as investors placed their bets on a Trump economy. Here’s a quick look at some standout gains:

  • XPO: +14.24%
  • Universal Logistics (ULH): +19.5%
  • ArcBest (ARCB): +11.54%
  • Hub Group (HUBG): +10.41%
  • TFI (TFII): +9.55%

The Dow Jones Transportation Average also jumped 5.4%, driven by expectations for lower corporate taxes and relaxed regulations under Trump.

Ken Adamo, reflecting on past cycles, pointed out:

“Everyone remembers ELDs and Harvey/Irma driving that cycle, but the Trump tax cuts sustained a lot of that bull run.”

If similar tax cuts and economic policies return, the freight market could see sustained momentum in this cycle as well.

Craig Fuller also boasted that financial circles align with his market perspectives over those of Jason Miller, his unofficial freight rival. Fuller posted that "transports are up 10%" since FreightCaviar published a feature on the two experts' diverging predictions.

🎣 Fuller vs. Miller
Plus, an EV maker partners with Ryder to test a hybrid diesel system, HappyRobot releases an AI update for brokers, and load board traffic declines over the past 3 months.

Trucking Policies: Regulatory Reset

Trump’s influence over trucking policy will be big. Expect a looser take on everything from emissions to speed limiters:

  • Emissions Standards: A potential reset to focus on what’s “technologically feasible” for diesel engines.
  • Speed Limiters: The current proposed rule could be delayed (or scrapped), much to the relief of owner-operators.
  • Independent Contractors: Trump may bring back a friendlier definition of “contractor,” a move owner-operators support.
  • Freight Tech: Freight technology advocates are watching closely. Trump’s light regulatory stance on automation and tech could spur rapid advancements in logistics and autonomous trucking, though it might also intensify labor concerns.

Global Trade: New Tariff Terrain

Trump’s campaign vow to slam 60% tariffs on Chinese imports is already sparking conversation. SupplyChainBrain spoke with experts on the potential impact.

  • Higher Import Costs: Retailers and manufacturers may see prices spike as tariffs climb.
  • Domestic Demand: Shifting production stateside could mean more miles and higher demand for U.S. trucking.

Sebastien Breteau from QIMA, a consumer product quality control company, warns that "higher tariffs could make consumer goods less affordable and may disrupt global supply chains."

Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen tapped his network for takes on Trump's impact on global trade: Some foresee a positive shift, suggesting that tariffs may largely be used as negotiation tools, paving the way for stronger U.S. manufacturing. Others, however, caution that widespread tariffs could lead to a drop in GDP, rising inflation, and significant labor shortages.

Key Players: ATA, U.S. Chamber, and More React

Across the board, key groups are backing Trump’s return:

  • American Trucking Associations (ATA): Trump’s second term, says ATA’s Chris Spear, offers “a historic opportunity” to enact trucking-friendly policies like rethinking emission standards.
  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce: CEO Suzanne Clark is on board, calling Trump’s agenda an “opportunity to create economic growth.” She highlighted support for tax cuts, regulatory relief, and a full-scale energy independence push.
  • National Association of Manufacturers (NAM): Jay Timmons, CEO of NAM, echoed the enthusiasm, emphasizing the potential for a more flexible regulatory environment: “We believe that we can build on past successes to roll back burdensome regulations and unleash American energy security.”

Overall, the support from stakeholders is clear, the main sentiment is that Trump's presidency will put the freight market in a better position, finally lifting us out of this prolonged recession.


Freight Broker Insights: What's Shaping the Industry in 2025

Join Highway and Greenscreens as they unpack the key trends, challenges, and wins that defined 2024 in freight. From customer successes to market shifts, we’ll cover it all to help you gear up for what’s next.

Your input shapes the conversation! Take a quick 3-question survey to share your 2025 goals and gain insights into where the industry stands and what’s top of mind for your peers.

These findings will be explored in depth on November 14—don’t miss out!


🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

Winter Hits I-40. A severe highway delay left truckers waiting hours in New Mexico, as a winter storm caused extreme road conditions, halting interstate traffic dead in its tracks.

🥩 Brisket Logistics. Chipotle’s limited-time smoked brisket promotion is finally back. Careful supply chain planning helped Chipotle source 22 million pounds of brisket and provide numerous companies with constant work.

🛣️ 76 Years: Over & Out. Family-owned McKevitt Trucking is ending its operation after 76 years of business. At the moment, the reason for the shutdown is unclear.

🐎 Racehorse Lawsuit. A group of racehorse owners is suing Creech Horse Transportation and driver Guy Landmeier for at least $3 million in damages after a tragic crash killed multiple thoroughbred horses.

🚨 CBP Seizes Narcotics. US Customs officers confiscate a major drug shipment at Eagle Pass. They seized packages containing 162 pounds of cocaine with a street value of $2.1 million.

🧹 Vacuum Thieves Arrested. Seven men have been charged in connection with stealing over $23,000 worth of vacuums from a parked semi. 100 Shark vacuums were eventually returned to the victim.


🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

  • Conferences: F3 Future of Freight Festival, November 19-21 in Chattanooga. Get $1395 off with our special link. In February, join us at Manifest Vegas 2025. Register with our link and save $200.
  • Freight Jobs: Find the latest freight job listings here.
  • Find Shippers Fast: Looking for customers? Check out ShipperCRM, the world's largest shipper database, and create an account.
  • Podcast: Check out our interview with Thilo Huellmann, Co-Founder at Levity.ai, which provides AI-driven email automation solutions for freight. Watch here.

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