The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Freight margins are razor-thin. The brokerages surviving it built nearshore teams that actually work.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
A mere 1.2% growth is expected this year, with a slight uptick to just over 2% in 2025.
Good Wednesday morning. Today's feature covers the FTR 2024 Freight Market report, revealing insights on an "unremarkable" year. In other news, retailers and logistics companies battle a surge in fraudulent returns, winter's icy grip on key transport lanes, and Port Houston's cargo dip.
🤔 Question of the Day: What is the busiest cargo port in the US? Scroll to the bottom of our newsletter to find out.
In today's email:
TOP LANE MOVERS POWERED BY GREENSCREENS.AI
*Greenscreens.ai, forecasts real-time truckload buy prices that are suited to each freight brokerage's purchasing power using AI and machine learning. Its engine takes into account over 130 attributes and data points in each rate forecast.
🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT
❄️ America's Most Treacherous Winter Lanes. This week, an unusual southern snowstorm is impacting major U.S. transport corridors, with the DC to NYC route experiencing its first significant snowfall. Concurrently, the West Coast faces continued stormy weather. Of the top 53 freight lanes, accommodating over 8,500 trucks daily, 31 are bracing for high or extreme weather conditions from January 15-22. Nashville features prominently on the list for the first time this season. The most affected routes include Louisville to Charlotte and San Francisco to Salt Lake City, with maximum shipment delays of up to 59% and driver risk ratings as high as 9.2, particularly impacting I-75 and I-40.
💸 Fraudulent Returns Surge. U.S. retailers are facing a burgeoning crisis with over $100 billion in fraudulent merchandise returns in 2023, doubling since 2020. Fraudsters exploit return policies, often replacing electronics with bricks or swapping genuine items with counterfeits. The trend spikes during holidays, with 17% of returns anticipated as fraudulent. Retailers are responding by tightening return processes, including rigorous receipt checks, ID verification, and using AI to detect unusual patterns. In-store returns are also promoted, showing lower fraud rates than mail-in options.
📉 Port Houston Sees 15% Cargo Volume Dip Year-Over-Year. Port Houston experienced a 15% YoY decline in cargo volumes in November, with 297,622 TEUs. Empties dropped significantly by 34%. In 2022, the port recorded its best year yet, seeing a 14% increase in annual volume, reaching just shy of 4 million TEUs. Despite this, the port is gearing up for expansion, welcoming one of its largest vessels, the CMA CGM Lisa Marie. They plan to accommodate even larger vessels in the near future and support the growth of the entire region.
TOGETHER WITH RELIANCE PARTNERS
Borderless Coverage powered by Reliance Partners launches the Mexico Cargo Hijacking Data Portal to tackle the high risk of cargo hijackings in Mexico. Providing in-depth analysis, the portal reveals a significant increase in hijackings, particularly in central and southern regions, and underscores the need for enhanced security measures. This tool is vital for businesses to strategize safer operations and navigate Mexico's challenging logistics landscape. Read more about the data portal here, then get in touch with Reliance Partners today at 877.668.1704!
As the freight industry steps into 2024, a blend of cautious optimism and measured expectations sets the tone. Based on insights from the FTR (Freight Transportation Research) Intel Report and opinions from industry experts and CEOs, the year ahead looks to be steady but unremarkable.
FTR's State of Freight report presents a modest outlook for the freight market in 2024:
These figures suggest a year of endurance rather than growth, with carriers urged to "hold on and look ahead to 2025."
Spot rates have stabilized after a 16% drop in 2022 and a further 19% decline in 2023. They are now at 2019 levels. However, operating costs have risen significantly since then. Contract rates fell about 7% last year, with a 3% decline expected this year, followed by gradual increases later. Despite steadier contract rates, carriers have also faced rising costs.
Contrasting with the trucking sector, freight rail shows signs of transition:
Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President for Trucking, paints a picture of the current market:
FreightCaviar's CEO Freight Market Predictions echo the conclusions of FTR.
You can read more of their insights here.👇
Paul-Bernard Jaroslawski
While 2024 may not bring groundbreaking changes to the freight industry, it offers a period for consolidation and preparation for future growth.
CEOs GET CANDID ON 2024 FREIGHT MARKET
Don’t miss this must-watch interactive Turvo Live Stream on Thursday, January 18th @ Noon EST. Join hundreds of freight brokers, 3PLs, carriers, shippers, and transportation pros who have already signed up. Register here and get perspectives from technology and freight broker CEOs on how they’re navigating 2024 and sticking to growth objectives after a highly successful 2023 for both companies.
AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB
⛽ Diesel Price Hike. Diesel prices see their first increase in 2024, rising by 3.5 cents to $3.863 a gallon.
🤳 Know Your Trucker App Launches. Know Your Trucker (KYT) enhances transparency and reduces fraud in the trucking industry using facial recognition technology.
🚢 Houthi Threat Escalates. The U.S. strikes back against the Yemen-based Houthis after a missile attack on the Malta-flagged carrier Zografia in the Red Sea.
🌌 Space Logistics Leap. D-Orbit, an Italian startup, raises $110M to expand its pioneering logistics services in space, one of the largest raises in Europe for a space tech startup.
🤝 Pilot Travel Centers Sale. The Haslam family finalizes the sale of their remaining 20% stake in Pilot Travel Centers to Berkshire Hathaway.
🔌 Estes Boosts Green Fleet. The major freight carrier incorporates 12 electric semis, expanding its eco-friendly assets to 300+ vehicles on the West Coast.
FREIGHT CONFERENCES WE'RE ATTENDING
Manifest Vegas, February 5 - 7, 2024, is the world's largest global supply chain & logistics tech event, bringing together Fortune 500 global supply chain executives, logistics service providers, cutting-edge startups, venture investors, and technology leaders. Join 4,500+ supply chain innovators to foster new strategies and relationships. Receive $200 off your ticket with our exclusive link.
FREIGHT MEME OF THE DAY
Also, check out:
Answer: The Port of Los Angeles—California is the busiest port in the US.
The domino effects are just starting to hit. Plus: FedEx dethroned UPS, Mexico truck production plunges, another $26M AI supply chain raise, and more.
Flatbed rejections hit a record 48.7%, broker numbers stop falling, and diesel jumps 30 cents overnight.
Congress is moving to put driverless 80,000-lb trucks on public roads. Plus: 13,000 California CDLs get cancelled, diesel hits a 32-year record, Florida wants $50K to get your truck back, and more.
Ryan Schreiber breaks down everything about strategy, relationships, mindset, and AI in logistics.
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