🎣 Freight Stocks Don't Lie

TGIF. Freight stocks don't lie, and yesterday, they were jumping. J.B. Hunt's Q1 beat sent the whole sector surging, and Wall Street is now pricing in what brokers have been feeling on the ground.

Plus:

• New York Loses $73.5 Million
• Super Ego Calls 60 Minutes a Lie
• China Kicks Maersk and MSC Out of Panama

and more.

🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight

🚨 New York Just Lost $73 Million. Secretary Duffy made good on his December threat. FMCSA issued a final determination of substantial noncompliance and pulled $73,502,543 in federal highway funding from New York after the state refused to revoke thousands of illegally issued non-domiciled CDLs. The audit says 107 of 200 sampled records, a 53% failure rate, were issued in violation of federal law. New York declined to act in March and is now paying for it, joining California as the only two states to actually lose funding over this. OOIDA President Todd Spencer called it plainly: "The days of exploiting cheap labor on the basis of false 'driver shortage' claims are over."

🎭 Super Ego Calls 60 Minutes a Lie. Four days after a 60 Minutes investigation named Super Ego Holding one of the most notorious chameleon carrier networks on American highways, the company fired back, calling the segment "misleading" and insisting it's an equipment leasing company, not a carrier. "Super Ego does not hire, pay, supervise, or contract drivers," the statement read. The defense is essentially: the trucks are ours, the drivers aren't. More than 800 truckers in a class action lawsuit — alleging fraud, pay manipulation, and falsified rate confirmation sheets — disagree.

🚢 China To Maersk & MSC: GET OUT. In a meeting with China's state planner last month, Beijing told Maersk and MSC to immediately withdraw from the Balboa and Cristóbal ports on the Panama Canal, the same terminals they took over after Panama's Supreme Court voided CK Hutchison's concession. China told both carriers they were "engaging in illegal activities that harm the interests of Chinese companies." Panama has granted temporary 18-month concessions to keep the terminals running. The broader backstory: a $22.8 billion Hutchison port sale to a BlackRock-led consortium triggered Beijing's backlash, and now two of the world's biggest ocean carriers are caught in the middle of a U.S.-China geopolitical fight over one of the world's most critical trade arteries.

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Wall Street Confirms Freight Cycle Turnaround

Freight stocks don't lie. And yesterday, they were shouting.

J.B. Hunt reported Q1 earnings that beat Wall Street on every metric:

• $3.06 billion in revenue
• EPS of $1.49
• Operating income up 16% YoY

The stock jumped roughly 7% on the news. But it didn't stop there. By Thursday afternoon, the move had spread across the sector: XPO up 5.61%, C.H. Robinson up 8.05%, Knight-Swift up 4.50%, and FedEx up 4.37%.

When the biggest carriers in the country all pop on the same day, it means one thing: investors have finally decided the freight recession is over.

What J.B. Hunt's Numbers Say

The earnings beat matters less than what CEO Shelley Simpson said on the call. Her exact words: the freight environment "felt meaningfully different" from recent years.

The data behind that feeling:

• Brokerage (ICS) load volume up 10%, revenue per load up 9% year-over-year
• Truckload revenue up 23% on 19% load growth
• Operating income up 16% overall
• DOT preventable accident rate beat prior year by 14% — a company record

But the most important line came from CFO Brad Delco, who walked through the upcycle pattern explicitly. Spot pricing moves first, and it already has. Contract pricing on highway follows 3–6 months later. Intermodal follows 6–12 months after that. "I can tell you things are structurally different," Delco said. "Capacity is continuing to exit the industry."

What's Different?

The 2022 boom was demand-driven, a Covid shock that flooded the market with freight.

This one is supply-driven. Carriers have been exiting for three years. Non-domiciled CDL crackdowns pulled thousands of drivers from the pool. Small trucking firms are still filing for bankruptcy: six new filings this week alone, spanning California, Texas, Illinois, and Florida. The trucks aren't coming back fast. Equipment financing is still tight. Fleet investment is still cautious.

Prologis, the world's largest logistics real estate company, confirmed the same inflection in its own Q1 report yesterday: record leasing activity of 64 million square feet, occupancy at 95.3%, and the first market rent uptick in 2.5 years. Demand for warehouse space is firming. That freight has to move somewhere.

For Brokers:

J.B. Hunt's brokerage arm ICS posted 10% load volume growth and 9% rate increases in Q1.

That's your leading indicator. Contract repricing on highway is 3–6 months behind spot. If you haven't had the rate conversation with your shippers yet, you're already behind the curve. The carriers know where this is going. And Wall Street does too.

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 🌎 Around the Freight Web

📊 100 3PLs Ranked. Fufill.com dropped its Top 100 3PLs list, "based on service quality, technology, scalability, and customer satisfaction."

🚛 Lease Purchase Debate. FreightWaves' Brake Check sat down with Hurricane Express founder Kaedon Steinert to break down what drivers need to know before signing a lease purchase agreement, including why it works for some and destroys others.

🏭 TA Dedicated Is Bigger. TFI International's TA Dedicated subsidiary acquired Triangle Warehouse, expanding its dedicated contract and warehousing footprint.

🏀 Prime Is Building a Palace. Prime Inc. is investing $160 million into a new Georgia terminal on 131 acres it bought for $40 million last year, featuring a basketball court, hair salon, hotel accommodations, fitness center, and more.

🪪 The VIN Lie. A man was arrested after selling 23 semi-truck trailers with fraudulent VINs in a $287,000 scheme, swapping identifying numbers to make stolen or salvaged equipment look legitimate before offloading it to unsuspecting buyers.

🎣 The FreightCaviar Corner

Issue 002 of FreightCaviar Print is almost here.

80 pages on the history of Freight Alley.

Print magazine + Caviar Circle access.

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