Greenscreens.ai: May 2024 Spot Rate Trends

We're back with the May 2024 Spot Market Update from greenscreens.ai. This update offers valuable insights into the current state of the transportation market, particularly focusing on spot rates across various regions. Greenscreens.ai CTO Matthew Harding shares his insights.

The overall market has experienced a significant variation in spot rates across different regions, with the northern markets seeing a notable decline.

National Carrier Spot Rate YoY Market Trends

• The overall market has experienced a significant variation in spot rates across different regions, with the northern markets seeing a notable decline.

Regional Carrier Spot Rate Market Trends to 2023H2 Baseline

• The South, Southwest, and Southeast markets are relatively stable or seeing slight improvements in spot rates compared to the second half of 2023.

  • South: -0.3%

  • Southwest: 0.0%

  • Southeast: +1.8%

• Northern markets, however, are facing a downturn, with rates down by 7% to 8%.

Regional Carrier Spot Rate YoY Market Trends

• A consistent seasonal pattern between northern and southern regions is observed across all transportation modes.

• Northern regions are experiencing a drag that impacts the overall market outlook negatively.

Key Takeaways

1. Southern Market Resilience

   1. The South, Southwest, and Southeast markets show resilience, with slight rate improvements or stability.

   2. The Southeast particularly stands out with a +1.8% increase for Van rates compared to 2023H2 baselines.

2. Northern Market Decline

   1. All northern markets are down by 7% to 8% for Van rates off 2023H2 levels, dimming the overall market outlook.

3. Reefer and Flatbed Rates

   1. Reefer rates in the South, Southwest, and Southeast are trending higher compared to northern markets.

      1. South: -1.4%

      2. Southwest: -1.3%

      3. Southeast: +12.8%

   2. Flatbed markets are showing strength in southern regions:

      1. South: +4.8%

      2. Southeast: +5.7%

      3. Southwest: +1.2%

4. Seasonal Patterns

   1. A consistent seasonal pattern between north and south is evident, but the northern drag affects the overall market.

Outlook for June 2024

• Market Expectations:

  • June typically sees higher demand as mid-year financial performance pressures supply.

  • Market watchers are cautious, anticipating potentially weak market conditions.

  • The differences in regional rate trends provide some hope for a balance, particularly with Reefer rates under strain in the Southeast.

Implications for the Freight Market

The update suggests that while there are pockets of stability and growth in the southern regions, the northern markets are dragging down the overall market performance.

This regional disparity might impact freight demand differently across the country as we move into the summer months.

Source: Greenscreens.ai