Capacity is tightening, enforcement is rising, and old visibility models no longer suffice. Here’s how full-market truck intelligence changes how brokers and shippers understand real supply.
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Capacity is tightening, enforcement is rising, and old visibility models no longer suffice. Here’s how full-market truck intelligence changes how brokers and shippers understand real supply.
The U.S. trucking market is moving through a period shaped heavily by regulatory pressure, driver credentialing scrutiny, and slowing equipment production. These forces are changing how much capacity is truly available on the road.
In our recent FreightCaviar poll, 85% of respondents said capacity is tightening.
Yet most of the tools used to measure supply rely on carriers opting into platforms, sharing data, or staying active on specific networks. When regulatory and operational shifts influence the real-world availability of trucks, tools that see only a small slice of the market struggle to provide an accurate picture.
This gap is why universal truck visibility, the ability to observe all trucks operating on U.S. roads, is becoming a critical benchmark for understanding capacity.
Traditional visibility tools remain essential to freight operations, but they were not designed to measure the full supply landscape. Their limitations show up clearly during tightening conditions.
Here’s why:
These tools provide operational value, but not universal visibility. When markets tighten, the gaps between platform activity and real capacity widen. A quiet load board doesn’t necessarily mean capacity is strong. A stable app-based dataset doesn’t necessarily mean driver availability is unchanged.
Because the underlying datasets are incomplete, the insights drawn from them can also be incomplete.
2024–2025 has brought regulatory activity with the potential to materially impact driver eligibility and fleet-level operations. Here are two instances of the scale of these developments.
1. CDL enforcement tightening driver eligibility
FMCSA issued an emergency rule targeting improper issuance of non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses. A DOT audit found at least 200,000 non-domiciled CDLs issued nationwide, with more than 25% in certain states granted improperly. Enforcement tied to this audit may remove drivers from service to verify credentials or revalidate licenses.
FreightWaves reporting noted that the rule responds to “widespread abuse in issuing these licenses,” underscoring how regulatory oversight can reshuffle driver availability in a short period.
Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves
2. ACT Research shows capacity contraction
FreightWaves also reported that ACT Research’s Capacity Index reached 47.5 in September, signaling contraction. Analyst Carter Vieth highlighted a 32% decline in tractor production from the first half to the second half of the year, pushing output below replacement levels. Fewer trucks entering fleets means reduced long-term supply.
These developments matter because they influence actual capacity, not just activity inside digital tools. But most platforms cannot detect when driver eligibility changes, when regulatory actions sideline equipment, or when production declines begin tightening regional availability.
They can only see what happens inside their app.
Universal visibility solves that gap.
John Paul Hampstead
Traditional visibility systems were built around participation; carriers and brokers must log in, share data, or operate inside a specific platform for their trucks to appear. That model worked when market conditions were stable, but it struggles in today’s environment. Enforcement is increasing, driver eligibility is tightening, truck production has slipped below replacement levels, and carrier exits continue in several regions. These are real shifts affecting real supply, yet most tools never detect them because they see only what happens inside their own network.
This limitation becomes clear during tightening cycles. App-based platforms may show steady activity even as enforcement removes drivers from the road. Load boards may look quiet even as regional availability shrinks. Because the underlying data is incomplete, the market signals derived from it are incomplete as well.
GenLogs moves past these constraints by observing all trucks on U.S. roads in real time, not just those using a particular system. This universal approach provides a view of capacity that reflects actual truck movement, not participation rates.
Here’s what changes when visibility expands from “opt-in data” to “all active trucks”:
These advantages explain why some companies are already shifting toward broader capacity intelligence. Going back to the aforementioned poll, 4% of respondents said they are investing in GenLogs, reflecting early recognition that the industry is moving past platform-based visibility and toward full-market observation. So maybe the other 96% could take advantage of the better visibility, or risk being left behind.
The core takeaway is straightforward: the trucking market is tightening, and enforcement is playing a growing role in reshaping capacity. Traditional visibility tools are useful, but they can only show the activity happening inside their networks, not the trucks operating on the road.
Universal visibility provides a clearer, more dependable foundation for understanding supply, responding to market shifts, and planning ahead.
Organizations interested in a broader approach to capacity intelligence can explore how GenLogs structures its visibility framework. Where the focus is on observing the full truck population rather than a limited set of platform users.
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