⚠️ Cargo Theft Up 57%

"Lots of other reasons to be bullish on the trucking industry in 2024: retail inventories have burned off, easing credit conditions, ..." - Craig Fuller, CEO & Founder of FreightWaves.

⚠️ Cargo Theft Up 57%

Good Wednesday morning. Today's feature breaks down the key data from Arrive's January 2024 Freight Market Update. We're also looking at another alarming spike in cargo theft, the ongoing contraction in the freight brokerage sector, and Triumph Financial's impressive earnings. Don't miss TruckStop's insights on fraud prevention and a final agreement on a pivotal merger.

🤔 Quiz of the Day: Instances of freight fraud have skyrocketed in 2023, up ___% from 2022 and a whopping ___% from 2021. Scroll to the Around the Freight Web image to find the answer.


Today's Newsletter is Brought to You by CTRLChain.

In today's email:

  • Three Freight Headlines: Cargo theft spikes in 2023, freight brokerage declines, and Triumph Financial's soaring net income.
  • Breakdown: Arrive's January 2024 Freight Market Update
  • Around the Freight Web: Fraud crackdowns, a pivotal merger settlement, and air freight's unexpected ascent.
  • Freight Meme of the Day

TOP LANE MOVERS POWERED BY GREENSCREENS.AI

*Greenscreens.ai, forecasts real-time truckload buy prices that are suited to each freight brokerage's purchasing power using AI and machine learning. Its engine takes into account over 130 attributes and data points in each rate forecast.


🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

Image
Cargo theft has caused some brokers to lose their customers. Credits to the Dooner for sharing on X.

🚨 Skyrocketing Cargo Theft in 2023. There was a significant 57% increase in cargo theft in 2023, with $130 million worth of goods stolen (a number considered woefully underreported). This escalation is particularly acute in the hotspots of California, Texas, and Florida, with a notable rise in cargo train robberies along the southern border. With industry leaders Paul Graham (YC) and Ryan Petersen (Flexport) discussing potential culprits, the pressure is on to tackle the issue. Some companies are adopting technologies like digital locking systems and real-time tracking. But questions remain on whether they can keep up with the boom of e-commerce and the resulting influx of "land pirates" ready to pilfer freight.

📉 Freight Brokerage Slump Hits 7-Month Streak. Data compiled by Brush Pass Research shows a contraction in the freight brokerage sector for the seventh month running, with a 7.8% drop in active brokerages compared to last year. The current total mirrors figures from two years ago, yet still shows a 21% jump since January 2021. Amidst a 22-month freight recession, the sector has seen a net increase of 33% since pre-pandemic levels. Despite 25,000 new brokerages emerging from January 2020 to December 2022, only 9,700 have sustained operations. With 2024 freight market predictions "unimpressive," the future of freight brokerages hang in the balance.

📈 Triumph Financial Reports 40% Revenue Increase. Triumph Financial showcases robust health with a net income of $8.8 million, while its division TriumphPay notably reaches EBITDA positivity. TriumphPay's revenue leaped by 40.6% in 2023, defying the freight recession. The division's strategic expansion includes the integration of Coyote Logistics into its network, reflecting a strong performance with a 16.7% increase in total payment volume. Poised for future growth, TriumphPay's new offering, LoadPay, promises to enhance financial management for truckers.


TOGETHER WITH CTRLCHAIN

ChainCargo, a leading Dutch logistics company active in Europe and the U.S., has rebranded to CtrlChain, marking a significant step in its growth strategy. The combination of "Ctrl" and "Chain" symbolizes a control tower, highlighting the access to crucial data insights and control over the logistics processes. This results in enhanced efficiency, reduced costs, and improved service levels.

The company has grown impressively, boasting a significant growth rate in the last five years and expanding its network notably within the FTL market in Europe and recently in the U.S. The company addresses key industry challenges such as freight fraud and driver shortages while emphasizing sustainability by offsetting CO2 emissions.


January 2024 Freight Market Update

The chart displays the fluctuating demand for truckload freight services compared to supply from 2018 to 2024, with peaks indicating higher demand or limited supply, and a 2013-2023 average for context.

The Freight Market Update for January 2024 from Arrive Logistics provides crucial insights into the U.S. freight market. We're highlighting their report on the trends and dynamics in truckload demand, supply, rates, and overall capacity to give you a comprehensive view of the industry's current state and future outlook.

Truckload Demand

  • Historical Comparison: Demand in 2023 was significantly lower than in 2022, indicating a prolonged downcycle.
  • Volume Trends:
    • Contract tender volumes up 8.2% YoY.
    • Dry van tender decrease of 6.1%, reefer tender decrease of 2.8%.
    • Spot load postings in December were down 23.3% from November and 57.2% YoY.

Truckload Supply

  • Market Stability: Despite some holiday volatility, the market remained stable, reflecting sufficient capacity to meet demand.
  • Tender Rejections:
    • End-year outbound tender reject rate around 5%.
    • Reefer rejections well over 10% in the second half of December.

Truckload Rates

  • Rate Fluctuations: Both van and reefer spot rates exhibited increased volatility during the holidays, moving towards equilibrium.
  • Fuel Impact: Declining fuel prices have influenced the rate trends, with the all-in rates for reefer and flatbed decreasing while van rates increased. National diesel prices declined nearly 13% from September to December.

Capacity Outlook

  • Market Dynamics: A combination of high revocations and fewer new entrants signals a capacity exodus.
  • Larger Trends: Despite lower demand and margin pressures, larger fleets continue to grow, indicating a slower capacity reduction than in previous cycles.
    • 14% decline in YoY truck orders in 2023.

Volume Outlook

  • Import Trends: A YoY increase in imports suggests an end to retailers' destocking phase, potentially increasing freight movement.
  • Economic Indicators: ISM manufacturing report showed contraction in backlogs and new orders for 15th and 16th consecutive months.
Image Source: ISM Report on Business/Arrive

Key Takeaways

  1. Contract Compliance: Historically strong compliance, especially in van equipment, is a significant trend, with around 5% van tender rejection activity.
  2. Reefer Market: Elevated reefer tender rejection rates suggest a quicker recovery for reefer equipment, making it more vulnerable to seasonal demand surges.
  3. Employment and Capacity Trends: Trucking employment remains robust above pre-pandemic levels, with CDL hiring still strong. New carrier entrants are declining faster than revocations, indicating a potential shift in momentum and faster capacity exit if current conditions prolong.
  4. Rate Dynamics: Reefer spot rates spiked at the end of December and into January, but are expected to decline as normal Q1 patterns emerge. Steadily declining fuel prices are providing carriers some relief.
  5. Retail Impact: The National Retail Federation reported strong import volumes in the last quarter of 2023, suggesting that the destocking phase for many retailers is concluding. Inflation remains below 4%, and the Fed has kept interest rates flat, with potential rate cuts after Q1 of 2024.

Arrive's January 2024 Freight Market Update reveals a market in transition, with varying trends across different equipment types and an overall movement towards equilibrium.

Others are more cautious in claiming a turnaround in the freight market, given recent weather conditions.

Overall, some indicators hint at recovery and transition towards stability at this juncture, but the complexities of external factors like weather conditions and global economic shifts suggest the path ahead may still hold unexpected challenges.

Weather Woes: Freight Industry’s Tough Winter Ahead
Severe winter weather hits the Midwest and East Coast, causing dangerous road conditions and impacting freight movement.
US Ports Adapt to Global Supply Chain Shifts
US ports face new challenges with a surge in West Coast imports and East Coast disruptions due to Red Sea attacks.

Source: Arrive Insights


GET INTEGRATED WITH OTR SOLUTIONS BROKER SERVICES

The trucking industry is crazy right now, and being a broker can be stressful. Managing your invoices, billing, collecting, carrier-base, and cashflow can feel like an impossible task, but OTR Solutions has figured out the impossible.

They eliminate cash flow problems for carrier payments and ensure margin funding in just 24 hours with broker invoice factoring. OTR Solutions takes care of billing and collection processes with your shippers. With lightning-quick and accurate invoicing, your customers will never need another broker to handle their freight needs. Kick back, relax, and let OTR take care of your brokerage.

If you want to know more, check them out here or text “OTRFC” to 80483 to see what they can do for your business.


AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

Image Source: TruckStop/X

🚫 Fraud Freeze. Truckstop blocked an impressive 9,928 accounts in a major clampdown on freight fraud last year, championing security in the industry.

🤝 Merger Milestone. Forward Air and Omni Logistics have settled their merger dispute, with a new deal expected to close shortly. Find out the revised terms of this crucial agreement.

✈️ Air Cargo Climb. Air freight volumes from Vietnam to Europe have spiked 62% due to Red Sea delays. Xeneta's data indicates a shift to air amid growing concerns.

💰 Walmart's Winning Drivers. Walmart's truck drivers enjoy six-figure salaries, a rarity in the industry. Their commitment reflects the retailer's strategy for supply chain excellence.

🎧 Logistics Tech Talk. The latest Freight Caviar Podcast takes on tech trends with A.J. Cheek (REPOWR) and Evan Shelley (Truck Parking Club), revealing insights on apps, why logistics companies fail, and more. Tune into the new episode for expert takes.


FREIGHT CONFERENCES WE'RE ATTENDING

Manifest Vegas, February 5 - 7, 2024, is the world's largest global supply chain & logistics tech event, bringing together Fortune 500 global supply chain executives, logistics service providers, cutting-edge startups, venture investors, and technology leaders.  Join 4,500+ supply chain innovators to foster new strategies and relationships. Receive $200 off your ticket with our exclusive link.


FREIGHT MEME OF THE DAY


Also, check out:

  • 🎧 The FreightCaviar Podcast. Listen to this week's podcast on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.
  • ☕️ FreightCaviar Essentials. Purchase a FreightCaviar hoodie, long-sleeve, or mug by clicking here.
  • 🎧 The Bootstrapper's Guide to Logistics is a podcast that highlights and inspires supply chain entrepreneurs, sharing their stories and building a community from the ground up.
  • Want to get your brand noticed by freight brokers? FreightCaviar can help. Work with us to get your services featured in our newsletter, podcast, and more. Plus, we write great articles about what you do. Get in touch with Paul at pbj@freightcaviar.com to learn more.

Great! You’ve successfully signed up.

Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.

You've successfully subscribed to FreightCaviar.

Success! Check your email for magic link to sign-in.

Success! Your billing info has been updated.

Your billing was not updated.