Mexico Tops U.S. Trade List Again, But Tariff Threats Returns

Mexico retained its position as the United States’ top trading partner in May 2025, with $74.5 billion in total trade, supported by strong exports of computers, vehicles, and parts. But the celebration may be short-lived.

Former President Donald Trump has announced a 30% tariff on imports from both Mexico and the European Union, citing national security and fentanyl concerns. The new duties, effective August 1, have drawn sharp criticism from global trade partners and raised concerns across the logistics and freight sectors.

Mexico Surpasses Canada and China Again in U.S. Trade

In May 2025, Mexico recorded $46.4 billion in exports to the U.S.—a 5% year-over-year increase. Imports from the U.S. totaled $28.2 billion, marking a 3% decline. Top exports included:

Computers: $7.2 billion
Cars and pickups: $4 billion
Auto parts: $3 billion

Key U.S. exports to Mexico were primarily industrial:

Gasoline and fuels: $2.2 billion
Computer parts: $2 billion
Auto parts: $1.7 billion

Trade volume through Laredo, Texas, one of the busiest land ports, totaled $30.4 billion, second only to Chicago O’Hare International Airport.

Trump’s Tariff Proposal Shakes Trade Partners

On July 13, Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on all imports from Mexico and the EU, citing concerns over drug trafficking and non-reciprocal trade policies. The announcement came via letters posted to Truth Social, part of a wider push to levy tariffs on 24 countries.

“Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough,” Trump wrote.
— Donald Trump, in a letter to President Claudia Sheinbaum

The letters triggered immediate backlash:

Mexico condemned the proposal as an “unfair deal,” stressing its sovereignty is not negotiable.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the tariffs would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains” and vowed “proportionate countermeasures.”
France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s auto industry signaled strong disapproval and concern over rising costs.

Uncertainty Surrounds USMCA and Future Trade Flow

The proposed tariffs raise significant questions for logistics professionals, especially regarding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). It remains unclear whether the agreement’s protections will shield certain goods from the August 1 tariff hike.

“We are clear on what we can work with the USA and we are clear on what we cannot. And there is something that is never negotiated, ever, and that is the sovereignty of our country.”
— Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum

This ambiguity puts pressure on freight forwarders, customs brokers, and cross-border carriers, who now face rising operational and compliance risks.

What It Means for Supply Chains

The proposed tariffs could once again reshape U.S.–Mexico logistics:

Cost increases across essential imports, from auto parts to electronics
Delays and congestion as shippers rush to frontload before August
Retaliatory tariffs could further disrupt U.S. exports to Mexico and the EU
Route reevaluations for freight brokers and importers working near tariff-sensitive sectors

With more than $840 billion in total U.S.–Mexico trade in 2024, the freight sector will be closely watching negotiations as the August deadline nears.

Source: FreightWaves 1, 2 | BBC