💰 Five Winners of 2023

Plus, another freight brokerage is closing its doors.

💰 Five Winners of 2023
XPO's share prices have surged by 108% since the beginning of the year, the most of any publicly traded transportation company in the US.

Happy Monday. Today's feature examines the driving factors behind the top five freight stocks. Also, we cover another brokerage closing its doors after a series of unfortunate events, the rumored Flexport and Convoy deal and the declines at South Carolina ports. Finally, look at our briefs on shifts in fleet sizes and how the trucking sector lost $7 billion in 2021.


Today's Newsletter is Brought to You By Rapido.

In today's email:

  • Three Freight Headlines: Texas brokerage shuts doors, Flexport eyes Convoy's tech, and South Carolina ports dip.
  • The Five Top Performing Freight Stocks
  • Around the Freight Web: Fleet sizes shift; project44's growth and lessons from Convoy, trucking loses $7B to traffic congestion, and more.
  • Freight Meme of the Day

TOP LANE MOVERS POWERED BY GREENSCREENS.AI

*Greenscreens.ai forecasts real-time truckload buy prices that are suited to each freight brokerage's purchasing power using AI and machine learning. Its engine takes into account over 130 attributes and data points in each rate forecast.


🐔 WHAT'S COOKIN' IN FREIGHT

🚛 Texas Freight Brokerage's Decline. For 26 years, SEL Supply Chain Solutions built a reputation for itself in the Texas transport scene. However, 2023 marked its downfall. Starting with a $700,000 theft of video poker machines in Las Vegas, the firm saw a 40% business drop from its $64 million earnings in 2022. Added to this, banking restrictions hampered its operations. CEO Dennis Martin highlights this year as the toughest. Despite the challenges, Martin aims to settle all dues and assist his team's transition.

🤑 Flexport Eyes Convoy's Tech. Logistics company Flexport is in discussions to secure the technology of recently-shut digital freight startup Convoy, according to sources. This comes amidst Flexport's own troubles, having laid off 40% of its workforce this year. While Convoy's previous valuation stood at a staggering $3.8 billion, they struggled to find a buyer after announcing their shutdown. Flexport, despite its workforce cuts, would be integrating some of Convoy's team. However, the terms do not include any of Convoy's physical assets or liabilities.

🚢 South Carolina Ports' Slump. September wasn't kind to the South Carolina Ports Authority, witnessing a 12% drop in cargo volumes from the year before. The month tallied 199,208 total TEUs, even less than August's 203,169. While the broader U.S. port industry anticipates a calmer peak season, retailers are gearing up with inventory adjustments, reverting to pre-pandemic levels in preparation for the holiday shipping season and beyond.


TOGETHER WITH RAPIDO

Rapido is a top nearshore staffing company providing logistics and supply chain talent to companies in the United States. Based in Guadalajara, Mexico, Rapido offers a unique combination of cost savings and access to a skilled workforce, making it an attractive option for American logistics businesses.

See what makes nearshoring to Mexico an attractive option for scaling a logistics company and how partnering with Rapido Solutions Group simplifies the whole process.


The 5 Best Performing Freight Stocks of 2023

We're bringing you the five top-performing freight stocks this year and breaking down the drivers behind their success.

XPO +108.13%

XPO has had a huge +108% YTD growth attributed to a combo of market opportunities post-Yellow's collapse, consistent revenue growth, and stellar Q2 earnings.

  • Better-than-expected Q2 earnings: XPO delivered better-than-expected results in its second-quarter earnings report, which boosted investor confidence.
  • Yellow's collapse: With Yellow out of the game, companies like Saia, Old Dominion, and XPO could grab a bigger piece of the market. XPO is growing.
  • Price target increase: A Wall Street bank raised its price target on XPO, citing continued trucking-demand resilience, and the rumors swirling before Yellow's fall.
  • Favorable change in price-to-sales multiple: XPO's stock has more than doubled since 2022, thanks to some favorable price metrics.
  • Revenue growth: XPO has reported revenue growth in recent quarters, including a revenue growth of $1.9 billion in Q1 2023.

SAIA +65.03%

Saia's 65% growth comes from strong earnings, booming revenue, wise reinvestment, and a solid return on equity (ROE).

  • Earnings Growth: The company has shown impressive earnings growth over the last three years, with annual EPS growth of 43%.
  • Revenue Growth: Saia saw an increase of 13% in revenue, hitting $2.8 billion.
  • Net Income: Net income growth has been exceptional, with a 30% growth over the past five years. This is quite high when compared to the industry average of 14%.
  • Low payout ratio: Instead of paying out dividends to shareholders, Saia reinvests all profits into the business, fueling its earnings growth.

Textainer Group Holdings (TGH) +57.44%

Textainer's growing revenue and a deal with Stonepeak led to its 57% stock growth.

  • Strong financial performance: TGH has reported a profit of $56.3 million in Q2 2023.
  • Stonepeak Deal: Infrastructure investor Stonepeak announced plans to buy Textainer in a deal worth $7.4 billion, causing TGH stock to skyrocket to record highs on October 23.

ArcBest Corp (ARCB) +48.61%

Various factors drive ArcBest's growth trajectory, including strong net income growth, confident share repurchase, and successful acquisitions.

  • Profitable Track Record: Over the past five years, Arcbest has seen a strong 40% growth in net income.
  • Reinvestment Strategy: With a low three-year median payout ratio of 4.8%, ArcBest heavily reinvests into its business, promoting further growth.
  • Share Repurchase: The company recently expanded its share repurchase authorization to $125 million in February 2023, further exhibiting confidence in its stock.
  • Acquisition of MoLo: Arcbest's acquisition of MoLo Solutions in 2021 has helped the company expand its operations and increase its market share.

Matson, Inc. (MATX) +42.61%

MATX's strong financials and more have contributed to its 43% YTD growth.

  • Earnings growth: Matson's net income has grown by 46% over the past five years, contributing to its stock growth.
  • Dividend Loyalty: MATX's track record of consistent dividend payments over the last decade underscores its commitment to rewarding shareholders.
  • Undervaluation: Matson's stock is currently undervalued, which may have made it an attractive investment opportunity for some investors.
  • Reinvestment Potential: With a three-year median payout ratio of just 6.9%, MATX retains 93% for business reinvestment, catalyzing its impressive earnings growth.

There you have it, the freight frontrunners of 2023. But every coin has two sides. Keep your eyes on your inbox because we'll spotlight the worst freight stocks of 2023 next.


JUST TEXT LOCATE IT

TextLocate makes it easy for brokers to communicate directly with drivers via SMS-based text messaging—no app to download—without having to use personal communication devices. Features like 2-way text chat, one-time location updates, and image capture (think BOLs and PODs) all inside a simple dashboard give brokers the quick updates they need to make better decisions about freight. Instead of wasting time calling drivers, brokers simply automate the process through TextLocate and save hours at very little cost investment.


AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

📊 Fleet Size Trends. Utilizing FMCSA data, @RunningSignal on X showed a significant rise in "1 Power Units" on the road in 2021. Although he doesn't have the data for 2022 & 2023 yet, we anticipate a drastic decrease since 2021, given that the costs to operate an MC are at record highs.

📍 project44 Concerns. Grant Sernick expressed concerns on LinkedIn about project44's valuation and challenges ahead, especially after Convoy's downfall. Jett McCandless, the CEO & Founder of project44, responded in the comments.

$7 Billion in Wasted Fuel. In 2021, congestion cost the trucking industry $95B, with drivers wasting $7B on fuel in traffic. ATRI identified California, Texas, Florida, and New York as top culprits.

🚚 Yellow's Liquidation. Bankruptcy court approves the sale of Yellow Corp.’s tractors and trailers, signaling the end of an era.

📦 UPS Acquires Company From PayPal. UPS's acquisition of reverse logistics company Happy Returns promises enhanced return experiences.


FREIGHT CONFERENCES WE'RE ATTENDING

Many enterprise shippers will be attending Manifest this February in Las Vegas. Use our link for a $200 discount.
  • Manifest Vegas, February 5 - 7, 2024: is the world's largest global supply chain & logistics tech event, bringing together Fortune 500 global supply chain executives, logistics service providers, cutting-edge startups, venture investors, and technology leaders.  Join 4,500+ supply chain innovators to foster new strategies and relationships. Receive $200 off your ticket with our exclusive link.
  • F3 Chattanooga, November 7th-9th, 2023: F3, taking place in Chattanooga, TN November 7th-9th. The heart of Freight Alley and home to FreightWaves—will come alive once again with the largest festival in freight November 7-9, 2023. Bringing together experts, entrepreneurs, industry leaders, educators and more to discuss the key factors impacting freight markets and the latest trends pushing our industry forward. Click this link to learn more.

FREIGHT MEME OF THE DAY


Also, check out:

  • 🎧 The FreightCaviar Podcast. Listen to this week's podcast on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.
  • ☕️ FreightCaviar Fall Essentials: purchase a FreightCaviar sticker, hoodie, long-sleeve, or mug by clicking here.

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