🎣 The Broker-Carrier Split

Plus: A Florida trucker charged in a fatal illegal U-turn crash, C.H. Robinson earns back its S&P upgrade, truck OEMs ditch the clean truck pact, and more.

🎣 The Broker-Carrier Split

Good Monday morning. Today’s feature digs into the Truckstop/Bloomberg survey that shows brokers and carriers are worlds apart on volumes, rates, and market optimism.

Plus,

  • 🚨 Florida Trucker Charged in Fatal Crash
  • 📈 C.H. Robinson Wins S&P Upgrade
  • ⚖️ Truck OEMs Quit Clean Truck Pact
  • ... and more.


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🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight

Image Source: St. Lucie County Sheriff's Office

🚨 Florida Trucker Charged After Fatal U-Turn Crash. Harjinder Singh, a Florida truck driver, has been charged with three counts of vehicular homicide after attempting an illegal U-turn on the Florida Turnpike that killed three people on August 12. The Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles said Singh “recklessly, and without regard for the safety of others, attempted to execute a U-Turn utilizing an unauthorized location.” Singh, who entered the U.S. illegally in 2018, faces an ICE detainer under the 287(g) program. Reddit users voiced concerns about licensing oversight, with one writing, “The system is f**** corrupt as hell. … Question the tester that passed this guy.”

📈 C.H. Robinson Regains S&P Upgrade on Cost Cuts. C.H. Robinson regained its BBB+ rating from S&P Global, reversing a 2024 downgrade, after cutting headcount and tightening costs. “They significantly and very quickly rightsized their head count,” said S&P analyst Geoffrey Wilson. Personnel expenses fell 19% since 2022, while automation has boosted shipments handled per employee. The company also repaid $141 million on its revolving credit facility and cut $70 million from receivables lending. CEO Benjamin Gordon of Cambridge Capital wrote, “It wasn't fun, and it wasn't pretty, but quick, decisive cuts were an important part of their strategy,” citing its 27% headcount reduction. S&P issued a stable outlook, highlighting stronger leverage ratios and improved liquidity.

⚖️ Truck OEMs Exit Clean Truck Pact as Federal Rules Take Focus. Daimler, PACCAR, Volvo, and International confirmed to the FTC that California’s 2023 Clean Truck Partnership is “rendered unenforceable” after Congress revoked the state’s emissions waiver. Each pledged to independently set vehicle production, addressing antitrust concerns. Nebraska also dropped its lawsuit after the pact was declared void. Attention now shifts to the federal NOx rule set for 2027. ATA and affiliates urged EPA to delay it until 2031, warning current timelines could misalign with warranty obligations and engine standards.


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The Freight Market's Great Divide: Brokers vs. Carriers

The freight market in 2025 is defined by a striking divergence: brokers remain confident, while carriers face mounting pressure. A recent midyear survey from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence captures the divide, revealing how differently each group sees the road ahead.

Brokers are far more upbeat about demand than carriers. While 37% of brokers reported higher load volumes year-over-year, only 19% of carriers said the same.

This “demand divergence” underscores how brokers, armed with flexibility and customer networks, are navigating the turbulence more effectively than the carriers who actually haul the freight.

The Revenue & Rate Divide

The contrast sharpens when looking at financial performance. Despite reporting limited year-over-year revenue growth, both groups maintain optimism about the volumes ahead.

Brokers’ ability to manage contracts and protect margins has insulated them, while carriers remain squeezed by weak spot rates.

  • 78% of brokers reported higher contract rates in 1H25.
  • 69% of brokers say gross margins are already stronger than late 2024
  • By contrast, only 17% of carriers said spot rates improved since mid-2024.
  • Nearly 60% of carriers said they hauled fewer loads in Q2 than Q1, pointing to persistent freight softness.

Tariff Tension & Political Whiplash

Carrier sentiment on political and economic factors has shifted sharply since Q1. 38% now believe tariffs will significantly hurt the industry, up from 30% last quarter.

Blame uncertainty, rising import costs, or slowed demand—but confidence is clearly eroding on the carrier side.

Back in December, 74% of brokers believed the new administration would be good for trucking; by June, that confidence had dropped to just 44%.

Labor and Investment

Despite market pressures, brokers are still relatively upbeat about their jobs:

However, carriers saw a 10-point drop in job satisfaction since Q1, underscoring how brutal the current environment remains, especially for small fleets.

Investment plans reflect this reality as well:

  • Only 21% of carriers plan to buy new equipment this year, down from 38% in Q1.
  • Only 40% of brokers plan to grow their teams in 2025, down from 52% in December.

Even as some expect demand recovery, neither group is betting heavily on a rapid turnaround.

A Market in Two Speeds

The survey paints a freight economy moving at two different speeds. It appears most brokers, afloat on stronger margins and contract rates, are more optimistic and confident in their position.

Carriers, meanwhile, are grappling with weak spot rates, high costs, and policy uncertainties that have led to a more rapid erosion of their confidence.


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🌎 Around The Freight Web

🌐 Trade Tops $73 Billion. U.S.–Mexico trade surged 4.4% year-over-year in June, totaling $73 billion, with $44.9 billion in imports (computers, vehicles, auto parts) and $28.1 billion in exports (gasoline, auto parts), led by Port Laredo.

⚖️ Driver Facing Life. Truck driver Vishavpal Singh, 31, was arrested August 13, 2025, at Buffalo’s Peace Bridge. He’s charged with intent to distribute 5+ kg of cocaine, a crime that could carry a life sentence if convicted.

💼 BMO Sale Considered. BMO is exploring a sale of its transportation finance arm, which holds around $11 billion in assets, reflecting weaker lending and exploring private equity interest.

🚛 DOT Eyes Self-Driving. The U.S. DOT issued an RFI seeking data to advance nationwide autonomous truck deployment, targeting standards, edge-case response, human–machine interaction, and public understanding.

😔 PA Carrier Bankruptcy. Carnegie, Pennsylvania’s Turk Transportation filed for Chapter 11 with assets under $1 million and liabilities up to $10 million. The small fleet carrier reached a deal to continue operations despite filing for bankruptcy.


🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

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FREIGHT HUMOR

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