US Inflation Shows Signs of Easing, Hits 4% in May

Easing Inflation Across Sectors

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported a slowing inflation rate in the US, with consumer prices rising 4% annually in May, a significant drop from peak inflation in June 2022. Key sectors contributing to this decrease include energy, with costs down nearly 12% due to a substantial 20% drop in gas prices. "Revenge spending", the trend of increased consumer spending post-lockdown, also shows signs of decline. Airfare prices dropped 13% annually in May, and hotel demand is lower than 2019 levels.

Challenges in Food and Rent Prices

Despite these positive signs, food prices saw a slight increase of 0.2% in May from April, reflecting persistent inflation in grocery store items. In contrast, egg prices showed the most substantial monthly drop since 1951, almost 14%, while fruit and vegetable prices rose by 1.3%. Shelter costs, making up the largest category in the CPI report, are still rising, up 8.7% from the previous year. However, reports indicate a possible decline in these costs during the second half of the year.

Outlook

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to pause interest rate hikes after a series of 10 consecutive increases. If the inflation continues its downward trend, interest rate hikes might not resume in the near future.

Source: Morning Brew

Annualized inflation prints by month:

June 9.06%
July 9.52%
Aug 8.26%
Sept 8.20%
Oct 7.75%
Nov 7.11%
Dec 6.45%
Jan 6.41%
Feb 6.04%
Mar 4.98%
Apr 4.93%
May 4.05%

Slowly but surely

— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) June 13, 2023