What FedEx’s Earnings Reveal About Trucking’s Tariff Turbulence

FedEx’s Q4 earnings show how the company is adapting to tariff shifts and industrial weakness.

What FedEx’s Earnings Reveal About Trucking’s Tariff Turbulence
Image Source: Sourcing Journal

FedEx’s latest earnings report offers a window into how shifting trade policies, persistent industrial weakness, and strategic restructuring are reshaping the trucking and logistics landscape.

The company posted modest gains despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, driven in part by new tariffs, international demand swings, and a soft U.S. industrial sector. Its ability to manage uncertainty, especially in its airfreight network, could set a precedent for how trucking and logistics firms navigate tariff-related volatility.

Tariff-Driven Trade Shifts Pressure FedEx’s Network

Tariff fluctuations and policy reversals caused disruptions in shipping patterns, particularly in the trans-Pacific corridor. FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam noted that demand from Asia dropped sharply in early May after the U.S. revoked duty-free treatment for low-value shipments. In response, FedEx slashed capacity out of Asia by over 35%.

“We are actively matching our capacity with demand as the environment evolves,” said Subramaniam. “What we have accomplished in May would not have been possible without the implementation of Tricolor.”

The Tricolor redesign of the FedEx air network now separates express and deferred shipments, allowing better utilization and responsiveness. By the end of May, international air capacity was down 20% from April, with some redirected to regions showing stronger demand.

To assist shippers navigating complex tariff classifications, FedEx also rolled out a new AI-driven tool to reduce customs clearance errors.

FedEx Freight: Volume Pressures Amid Industrial Slowdown

FedEx Freight—the largest LTL carrier in the U.S.—reported a 6% drop in operating income in Q4 and a 4% revenue decline. The segment cited reduced weight per shipment, lower fuel surcharges, and higher operating costs as headwinds.

Still, FedEx saw sequential volume improvement:

  • Q4 average daily shipments rose 8.3% from Q3, despite being down 1% year-over-year.
  • The quarter posted the highest Q4-over-Q3 volume gain since FY2021.

EVP Brie Carere acknowledged, “We have not seen a marked improvement in the industrial economy,” thus stressing how freight demand continues to lag broader recovery hopes.

To optimize costs, FedEx Freight sold a terminal, likely the Dallas location recently acquired by Outpost, which generated a $33 million gain. The segment posted a 20.8% operating margin for the quarter, slightly below last year’s 21.2%.

Freight Spin-Off in 2026 Signals Strategic Realignment

FedEx plans to spin off its Freight division into a standalone public company by June 2026. Ahead of that move, the company has appointed key leadership:

  • John Smith: CEO and President of FedEx Freight (currently COO of FedEx U.S. and Canada)
  • Clint McCoy: Chief Operating Officer
  • Michael Rogers: Chief Technology Officer
  • Eddie Klank: Chief Human Resources and Legal Officer
  • Mike Lyons: Chief Specialized Services and Commercial Officer

The Freight segment is also building a dedicated sales force, with plans to improve customer service and grow market share, particularly as it faces competition from expanding LTL operators like Knight-Swift.

Cost-Cutting and Network Optimization Offset Headwinds

FedEx said it achieved $4 billion in structural cost reductions through its DRIVE initiative, with an additional $1 billion expected in FY2026.

Highlights include:

  • Capital spending cut by 22% year-over-year to $4.1B
  • Retirement of 12 cargo jets
  • Consolidation of Express and Ground into Network 2.0
  • New AI and automation investments in the U.S. and Europe

Despite modest overall revenue growth—just under 1% YoY in Q4—the company beat EPS expectations, with $6.07 in diluted earnings per share versus $5.85 forecasted.

Still, Wall Street reacted cautiously. Shares fell 5% post-earnings, partly due to subdued Q1 guidance and the ongoing loss of a major USPS contract.

Source: FreightWaves 1, 2 | TruckingDive


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