2026 Freight Outlook

What can you expect from Q1? How can AI give you a leg up on targeting freight, and what strategies can help you navigate a turbulent market? David Spencer, VP of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, breaks it all down and reveals his 2026 predictions.

Although many are concerned about today’s market, according to David, it’s likely more balanced than most think. That said, we will notice some sensitivity, largely driven by capacity exiting the market.

“The way I see this year playing out is– there’s no such thing as disruption, just greater volatility when you see those demand surges seasonally.”

That means during spring produce season, DOT week, and summer peak, you can expect greater rate volatility in those periods. But this doesn’t necessarily indicate a market flip.

So, what can carriers and brokers do to stay steady right now? The answer is simple: provide excellent service to maintain strong relationships with shippers, ensuring opportunities for consistent freight throughout the year.

David also shared his predictions for the first quarter of the year and whether we can expect a disruption in the near future. He expects spot rates to come down around January and February.

“I think it’s a good signal that this market is more than ready for a good disruption, but I don’t think we’re there quite yet.”

On the topic of the current CDL enforcement, David is cautiously optimistic about the administration’s efforts but raises concerns about the timeline.

“If you’re saying it’s nearly 200,000 drivers, that’s significant. Especially if you pull that capacity off in a one or two month period. But it takes one to two years for that capacity  to be removed (...) and I’m sceptical of this administration’s ability to drive enforcement fast enough.” 

David also shared his thoughts on AI and how it can help find profitable freight:

 “It’s hard for a human to have eyes on everything at once, so if you can leverage AI to be noticing these patterns and these signals, it can give you a leg up on where to target freight.”

To sum up, David believes there’s little room for rates to decline from current levels, with a well-established rate floor.

“I think the outlook is pretty clear from the capacity side. There’s not a lot of reasons to expect capacity growth this year, it’s not getting any easier or cheaper to run a truck. On the supply side, attrition is what we’re expecting. Worst-case scenario, we’re looking at last year for a baseline case.”

There’s no reason to lose hope as we enter the new year. With the right tools and the right attitude, you can navigate the market successfully and go far.