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Despite official reports of growth, China's on-ground economic situation is grim with deflation, reduced exports, high youth unemployment, and declining property market.
Despite China's officially reported solid growth, the on-ground reality presents a more dismal economic situation. Several businesses are suffering significant losses, leading to layoffs and contemplations of shutdowns. Although China has not technically entered a recession, its reported 7% GDP growth for the second quarter doesn't account for the extent of economic distress.
China is on the brink of deflation, with factory-gate prices falling rapidly and consumer inflation virtually nonexistent. Exports have significantly declined, youth unemployment has spiked, and the property sector is again spiraling downward. Investments by private firms, a key driver of job creation, have also dropped, marking the first sustained decline in decades.
China's economic underperformance could have significant global implications, especially as Western economies risk recession due to central banks' efforts to fight inflation. China's weak economy will dampen global demand for resources, thereby hurting multinational corporations that rely on China's vast domestic market.
Despite the grim outlook, there are some positive indications. China is expected to achieve its target of around 5% growth for the year. Some industries, like semiconductors, are attracting significant investment and China became the largest auto exporter in the world in the first quarter.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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