🎣Freight Rates In Wait

Happy Wednesday. Freight rates popped in May… then fizzled. Today’s feature breaks down the key trends from Arrive’s June Freight Market Update, including what to watch as we roll toward July 4th.

Plus:

• 📚 Driving Schools Brace for English Rule
• 🚨 Feds Charge Banned Texas Trucker
• ⛈️ First Tropical Storm of the Season
• ... and more.

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🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

📚 English Proficiency Crackdown Begins Within Trucking Industry. With new FMCSA rules now in effect, commercial drivers who cannot speak and read English face immediate out-of-service orders under a June 25 enforcement tied to Trump’s executive order. Driving schools are racing to adapt: introducing scripts, ESL classes, and English-language drills to keep students compliant. “We’ve had to adjust everything,” said Jonathan Marques of a New Jersey-based school. Up to 10% of current drivers could be impacted, potentially tightening capacity and driving up rates. Critics warn of subjective enforcement and possible discrimination against non-native speakers. “It’s going to be the interpretation of the officer,” noted Jerry Maldonado of the Laredo Motor Carriers Association.

🚨 Texas Operator Charged for Running Unsafe Trucking Firms Despite Federal Ban. Federal authorities have charged Shaquan Jelks, 48, of Houston, for allegedly defying FMCSA shutdown orders and running multiple unsafe trucking companies. Despite two Out-of-Service designations—including one labeling his operations an “imminent hazard”—Jelks continued to operate under new business names, including 4 Life Transport Corp. He is accused of submitting false documents, misusing PPP funds, and being linked to a 2022 fatal crash. A federal judge denied his release, citing public danger. “This case reflects our commitment to holding commercial operators accountable,” said DOT-OIG’s Joseph Harris. Jelks has a prior murder conviction and faces conspiracy and fraud charges.

⛈️ Tropical Storm Andrea Kicks Off Active 2025 Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the central Atlantic on June 25, marking the official start of what forecasters expect to be a highly active hurricane season. The system, located 2,000 miles east of Florida, is weakening rapidly and poses no threat to land. Still, its formation aligns with NOAA’s prediction of 13–19 named storms, including up to five major hurricanes. Warmer ocean temperatures and favorable wind patterns are driving the outlook. With upgraded 72-hour forecasts and stronger modeling, NOAA urges preparedness early. As meteorologist Jim Dickey warned: “A slow start doesn’t mean a slow season.”

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June 2025 Freight Market Update

The freight market’s been moving—but not necessarily forward. May gave us seasonal volatility (thanks to Road Check week), but overall demand stayed soft, supply stayed strong, and spot rate gains faded fast.

According to David Spencer at Arrive, the market is stuck in a holding pattern with few signs of a breakout. Still, there are signals worth watching as we roll into July.

Here’s what’s really happening beneath the surface.

Demand

Soft Imports, Slower Manufacturing, But a Glimmer from China

• Spot demand rose 7% YoY in May, but it was reefer and flatbed doing the heavy lifting—dry van stayed flat.
• Import volumes fell 9.7% MoM, hit hard by China tariffs. Shipments from China alone plummeted 28.5% YoY.
• However, forward import orders surged as paused tariffs opened the floodgates. A short-lived volume bump may follow.
• Manufacturing’s still in a funk, with new orders and production both declining.

Trump Broadens Tariff Strategy with Dual Tracks

Trump escalates tariffs with new Section 232 actions and a looming July 9 deadline, pressuring trade partners and raising concerns over inflation and retaliation.

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Tariff chaos is messing with ordering patterns. The current import rebound feels temporary unless broader consumer trends reverse course.

Rates

Up for Now, But Don’t Expect Fireworks

• Dry Van: Spot rates climbed $0.05 since May, reaching $1.62/mi. Contract rates are still higher, but the gap narrowed to $0.38.
• Reefer: After an $0.08 spike in May, reefer rates dipped $0.01 mid-June, now averaging $1.95/mi.
• Flatbed: Spot rates held steady at $2.05/mi, but still sit 4–5% higher YoY, thanks to ongoing strength in the building sector.

Expect some pre-Fourth of July volatility, but don’t bet on it sticking. The market tends to sober up right after the fireworks.

Capacity

Still Plenty to Go Around

• Tender rejection rates dipped post-Roadcheck and Memorial Day.
• Flatbed tightness cooled, reefer rejection patterns held regional.
• Carrier count rose by 600 in May, but Class 8 orders are still below replacement level, and that’ll hurt later if volume returns.

Economic & Regulatory Quick Hits

• Fuel prices up 20% in a month, driven by Middle East conflict.
• FMCSA’s English proficiency order goes into effect today & capacity impact still TBD.
• Labor market's still propping up spending… but for how long?

Strait of Hormuz Under Threat: Global Oil and Freight Shipping Face Mounting Risks

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rise after U.S. strikes on Iran, threatening oil flows, diesel prices, and global freight shipping

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Overall, seasonal patterns are still in play, but weaker than typical. Despite the pre-Fourth of July push, demand is dragging, and any spikes will likely be short-lived. Even with signs of life in import orders, macroeconomic uncertainty, tariff drama, and cooling consumer spend are keeping things muted.

At this point, the market updates are all sounding the same: Cautious, wait and see. July will continue this long, slow burn.

You can read the full report from Arrive here.

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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

🎥 Lights, Camera, Trucking. A new documentary series, backed by the American Trucking Associations, aims to reshape public perception of the industry by showcasing the essential role truck drivers play in the U.S. economy and everyday life.

🕊 FedEx Founder Passes Away. Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx, has died at age 80. Smith pioneered overnight shipping and helped modernize the logistics industry. May he rest in peace.

🛢️ Diesel, Tanker Rates Surge. The benchmark diesel price reached its highest level in nearly a year, while tanker shipping rates soared after U.S. airstrikes in Iran, intensifying fuel cost and freight volatility.

🤖 Amazon Opens Robotic Facility. Amazon opened a 3.8 million-square-foot, four-story fulfillment center in Massachusetts featuring hundreds of robots, each lifting up to 1,500 pounds, to help 1,000+ employees fulfill tens of thousands of daily orders within the area.

🚔 Sen. Cruz Speaks on Freight Theft. During a Senate Commerce Committee hearing last week, Sen. Ted Cruz spoke on the rise in organized freight theft and asked witnesses what Congress can do to support prevention efforts and strengthen supply chain security.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

• FreightCaviar Podcast: This week on the FreightCaviar Podcast, we chat with Jonathan Kolb, founder of OBC ONE, on the perks, pressures, and future of hand-carry freight. A must-listen for time-critical logistics pros. You can catch it on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
• Forum.FreightCaviar.com: Now Live! A space built for brokers, carriers, dispatchers, and freight tech to connect, share, and learn from one another. Sign up now here.

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