🎣 Spot Rates Split

Happy Thursday. If May felt like déjà vu, you’re not wrong. Spot market rates for vans and reefers kept sliding while flatbeds got their seasonal uptick.

According to Greenscreens.ai’s May 2025 Market Update, the U.S. freight market continues to reflect an economy stuck in neutral, strong in some corners, stalling in others.

Let’s break it down.

May Freight Market Pulse

Vans: Sluggish Despite Slight YoY Gain

Van rates are technically up +1.5% YoY, but that masks underlying weakness. Compared to the second half of 2024, rates in North and Southwest regions dropped by -11.1% and -4.4%, respectively.

Possible Factors:

• A manufacturing slowdown. The ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 48.5 in May, the third straight month below the 50 threshold, signaling continued contraction.
• At the same time, McKinsey reports a pullback in discretionary consumer spending, with shoppers across all income levels prioritizing essentials and avoiding splurges. That means fewer electronics, apparel, and consumer goods moving by dry van.

Reefers: Produce Season Fizzles

May should’ve been reefer season, but rates slipped -0.6% YoY and -0.6% vs. 2024 H2, according to Greenscreens.ai.

• Carriers overcommitted, expecting volume surges that didn’t fully materialize.
• Retailers, still dealing with elevated inventories, limited orders to reduce risk. This lines up with reports that many are scaling back on replenishment, especially in perishable categories.

Even strong produce markets in Florida and California couldn’t lift the segment enough to overcome overcapacity.

Flatbeds: Strongest Type

Flatbeds remain the best-performing equipment type, with spot rates up +14% vs. 2024 H2 and +8% YoY.

Though new housing construction is still down, demand for construction materials, machinery, and steel is being buoyed by:

• Infrastructure projects, particularly in the South and Midwest
• Energy sector growth
• Federal grant rollouts that support public works and transportation investment

For now, flatbeds are benefiting from a unique mix of seasonality and industrial activity that hasn’t translated to other segments.

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Regional Spot Rate Movers

Greenscreens.ai offers a pulse check on where freight was strongest and weakest in May—and it’s clear the Southeast dominated, especially for vans and reefers.

• Flatbed popped in the Midwest, up +17.3% YoY, and +8.8% in the Southeast, fueled by infrastructure and industrial demand.
• Van rates climbed most in the Northeast at +4.0%, while the Northwest dropped to -1.1%.
• Reefer was weakest in the Southeast, down -4.4%, despite peak produce season.

If you're hunting for where the freight action actually was in May, Greenscreens.ai's lane-level data highlights the top 10 performing truckload markets by equipment type.

Van Freight: Southeast Strongholds

While national van trends were underwhelming, the Southeast lit up the map. Key van origin markets include:

Many of these regions benefit from port access, warehousing networks, and relatively strong consumer-driven freight demand.

Reefer Freight: Produce Powerhouses

Even in a soft reefer season, produce lanes stayed active in:

These lanes reflect harvest timing and cold storage proximity, even if volumes didn't spike like in past years.

Flatbed Freight: Infrastructure-Driven Surge

Flatbeds saw broad geographic lift, particularly in areas tied to infrastructure and industrial freight:

These areas have been key players in construction material and machinery movement, fueled by both public and private projects.

Bottom Line: Brokers and carriers looking for traction in a lukewarm market should lean on regional intelligence. Knowing where capacity is tightening (or loosening) can offer a real edge.

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