🎣 Cautious & Tired

Good Monday morning. The March freight market remains stuck in neutral. Rates dipped, demand stayed soft, and carriers continue to operate on thin margins as 2025's upturn stalls out. We've got a breakdown of these market signals in today's feature.

Plus:

• 📃 Trump Tweaks Tariff Plan
• 👋 FMCSA Chief Exits After Just 2 Weeks
• 🚦 Congestion Pricing Fight Escalates
• and more...

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🐔 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

📃 Trump's New Tariff Plan and U.S. Manufacturing Investments. The White House is refining its April 2nd tariff strategy (dubbed "Liberation Day" by President Trump), shifting from broad sector-specific tariffs to reciprocal levies targeting 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances. Dubbed the "dirty 15," these countries—including China, Canada, and the EU—face significant tariff hikes. Meanwhile, major U.S. companies are ramping up domestic investments, with Johnson & Johnson committing $55 billion to expand manufacturing, aligning with Trump’s push for American production. "Our increased U.S. investment begins with the groundbreaking of a high-tech facility in North Carolina that will not only add U.S.-based jobs but manufacture cutting-edge medicines to treat patients in America and around the world," CEO Joaquin Duato said in a statement. Other firms, including Apple and Nvidia, have pledged to invest billions into their manufacturing sectors.

👩‍💼 FMCSA’s Acting Administrator Departs After Record-Short Tenure. Adrienne Camire’s tenure as acting administrator of FMCSA ended abruptly after just two weeks. Appointed on March 7, Camire’s name and announcement were quietly removed from the FMCSA website. The agency and the Department of Transportation have not provided an explanation. Originally named senior advisor to FMCSA’s administrator, Camire previously served as chief counsel to the Federal Highway Administration. Her sudden departure marks the shortest leadership term in FMCSA history, surpassing Wiley Deck’s five-month tenure. As of now, Sue Lawless appears at the top of FMCSA’s leadership page as the Executive Director and Chief Safety Officer.

🛑 The Battle Over Halting Congestion Pricing. New York Governor Kathy Hochul and MTA CEO Janno Lieber refuse to comply with a federal order to end congestion pricing tolls by March 21. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) revoked its approval, citing unfair costs to working-class drivers and truckers. "I’m not shutting it off," Hochul told NBC New York on Tuesday. "I’m not shutting it off. [...] It is working. It was a state decision. We had the proper federal approvals for this." In response, MTA filed a federal lawsuit challenging FHWA’s decision. Trucking groups like OOIDA strongly oppose the tolls, arguing they unfairly target commercial vehicles and are problematic for owner-operators. The ATA and the Trucking Association of New York called the congestion pricing program “ill-conceived” and “discriminatory.”

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March Freight Market Update: Still Stuck in Neutral

After some January optimism, March brought the freight market back to Earth. The “first rate rise in 30 months” is expected to be short-lived and tied to temporary inventory front-loading—not an actual trend reversal.

According to Arrive Logistics' March 2025 Freight Market Update, demand, supply, and rates all eased through February and mid-March, with no major signs of disruption yet.

Demand: Weak

Freight demand is following typical Q1 patterns, with some regional pockets of strength but no real breakout.

• Accepted contract loads fell in March compared to February.
• Spot volume was briefly lifted by tariff-related border shipments—but that bump has faded.
• Consumer sentiment dipped sharply, with the University of Michigan index showing growing uncertainty around inflation and economic stability.

Some bright spots include early produce season demand in southern Texas and a modest boost from home and lawn care freight. But overall, year-over-year comparisons remain in the red: Cass Freight Index showed volumes down 8% YoY and 15% over two years.

Supply: Leaner, But Still Holding

Carrier exits have slowed significantly, and fleets are more stable than they were a year ago.

• Employment has leveled off since mid-2024.
• Truck utilization is up, with FTR estimating 93% now, headed to 95% by year-end—approaching disruption territory.
• Flatbed markets are tightening, as expected, with seasonal construction demand kicking in.
• Dry van and reefer? Still relatively balanced, but tender rejections are quietly trending higher.

Arrive calls this a “controlled burn,” not a market exodus. Smaller fleets are hanging on, but capacity is more brittle than it seems.

Rates: Soft, with Seasonal Blips

January’s rate spike is already in the rearview mirror. March saw declines across most modes:

• Dry van down $0.13/mi
• Reefer down $0.20/mi
• Flatbed up $0.03/mi — the only positive mover, due to building season

Contract rates remain flat, and spot-contract gaps are widening. No major rate shifts are expected until DOT Roadcheck Week in May.

On the upside, diesel prices dipped, helping offset cost pressures—especially for open deck freight.

Industry Mood: Cautious & Tired

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello had this to say at the Truckload Carriers Association's Truckload 2025 conference:

“In the period we’ve just gone through, we didn’t even fall 10%, but it lasted 27 months...That is just a slow, slow tearing off of the Band-Aid and why it felt so bad.”

Others echoed the fatigue:

“We’re all flabbergasted with how long this has lasted,” said Dave Williams of Knight-Swift.

“You can’t cost-cut your way to profitability,” added Kriska CEO Mark Seymour. “Revenue matters.”

The general consensus? This downturn wasn’t as steep—but it’s been far more drawn out, and small carriers are still bearing the brunt of the pain.

Sources: Arrive Logistics | DATiQ | Transport Topics

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🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

⛽ BP's Sale to Apollo. BP is selling a 25% noncontrolling stake in its TANAP gas pipeline to Apollo Global Management for $1 billion. The deal is set to close in the second quarter, pending regulatory and TANAP shareholder approval.

🏛 Survivor’s Lawsuit. Nathan Jonard has filed a $100 million lawsuit after an I-35 pileup in Austin left his life “permanently altered.” The crash was caused by a truck driver on CNS depressants who ran into a line of stopped traffic, killing five and injuring 11.

📦 Small Package Decline. Chinese companies reduced small package shipments to the U.S. in February, dropping 5% year-over-year. This decline is a response to new levies on China, and the closure of the under-$800 declared value loophole.

❄️ Unchained Fine. "It’s been a long time coming," said OC Chris Botkins of the Vail Police Department, as Vail, CO, passed an ordinance enacting a $2,650 fine for truckers who drive along I-70 without chains, spin out, and block roadways while chain laws are in effect.

👩‍⚖️ Harder to Sue. Texas legislators have proposed a bill making it more difficult to sue trucking companies over accidents. The bill would set limits on payouts and settlements. For example, a judge would be allowed to lower a jury’s wrongful death verdict above $1 million to a lesser payout.

⚖️ Owner Sentenced for FMCSA Violations. Tony Kirik (aka Anatoliy Kirik) received a 45-month prison sentence for submitting false documents to FMCSA regarding the safety rating of his multi-million dollar trucking company, Dallas Logistics. He also provided false information during safety audits and compliance reviews.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

• The FreightCaviar Podcast: In this week’s episode of the FreightCaviar Podcast, we sat down with Jackie Jones, Chief Marketing Officer at Mesilla Valley Transportation, one of the largest private fleets in America. Catch the interview on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
• ‼️ Now Hiring: Ro Trans Freight in Burr Ridge, IL, is seeking a Senior Freight Dispatcher for its Dry Van Division. This full-time role offers a competitive salary, a great work atmosphere, and an opportunity to grow with the company. Learn more and apply here.
• TIA Capital Ideas Conference: FreightCaviar will be in attendance at this year's conference, held April 9-12 in San Antonio. We hope to see you there at the biggest event for brokers. Register now.

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