Mexico-US Truck Crossings Hit Record High in Q2 2024

Northbound truck crossings from Mexico to the US smashed records in Q2 2024.

Key Stats:

• 1.97 million crossings in Q2 2024
• Up 4.3% year-over-year
• 21% increase from Q2 2018

Expert Analysis:

Supple chain professor Jason Miller provided his analysis of the data:

1. Q2 2024 saw 1.97 million northbound truck crossings, a 4.3% jump from last year. This surge marks a 21% increase from the previous high in Q2 2018, pre-pandemic.
2. The 4.3% year-over-year growth aligns with 2016-2018 trends. This follows weakness in 2019 and most of 2023.
3. A notable dip had occurred in Q4 2021, likely due to US auto production slowdowns from component shortages.
4. Mexican manufacturing is only up 7% from Q2 2018, which does raise questions about the 20% truck crossing increase.

Possible Explanations:

Miller gave some possible reasons on why things are the way they are currently. For starters, there could be an increase in US-bound agricultural shipments. There is also the possibility of more freight-intensive manufacturing exports.

For instance, according to Miller, Mexican beverage companies could be sending a "greater share of output northbound to the USA."

He also writes that finished Chinese products are being imported to Mexico, with a “Made in Mexico” label slapped on them to avoid tariffs.

Regardless of the possible explanations, the solid growth in Q2 signals a strong return for Mexico-US trade. Industry watchers will be keen to see if this upward trend continues.

Source: Jason Miller\LinkedIn