Trucking Insurance at a Crossroads: Nuclear Verdicts, AI, and Rising Premiums

Insurers and motor carriers are navigating a harder market shaped by outsized jury awards and fast-emerging technology. Transport Topics frames it as: “It’s not hyperbole to say that verdicts reaching into the tens of millions against carriers while regulators and insurers are trying to make sense of AI’s role are currently creating a seismic shift in the way that insurance policies are developed and nurtured.” The dynamic is squeezing coverage limits, pushing deductibles higher, and forcing fleets, especially smaller operators, to prove safety and technology rigor to even get quotes.

Legal Climate: One Reversal Doesn’t Change The Trend

The Texas Supreme Court’s reversal of a $100 million verdict against Werner Enterprises was a rare win in a climate that defendants say is driving settlements higher regardless of fault. As ATA’s Pam Bracher noted, “We splash these headlines of these large verdicts, and nobody ever talks about all the defense wins, and there’s a lot out there. But this sort of threat of this large verdict creates a fear that drives up settlement values.”

From the defense bar’s perspective, some cases are worth trying. Jay Starrett of Scopelitis said, “There is a trend where if you have the right facts and if you’re willing to try the case, the defense bar is having success in defending the industry.” Still, the broader pressure persists. Jerry Gillikin of Hub Transportation insurance called the environment “desperate,” adding, “[Claims] that used to be a hundred thousand are now a million dollars… How many of those can you pay?”

Why Premiums Keep Rising...Even For Clean Fleets

Underwriters must price for tail risk that can land anywhere. Nick Saeger of Sentry drew the analogy: “We know that they’re going to happen across the industry. We don’t know which companies are going to have them happen. So you have to sort of price for it across the broader industry, and the prices just have to increase for everyone, whether you’ve had that bad claim or not.”

That spreading of risk means even strong operators feel the pinch. As Matthew Payne at Lockton put it, “Even if you’re operating perfectly, you’re going to have increasing insurance rates. … It’s punishing everybody because the insurance carriers spread the risk across all their insureds.”

Capacity shifts: lower limits, higher retentions

Market capacity has contracted across primary and excess layers. TrueNorth’s Dan Cook reports carriers “offering $1 million primary limits after giving as much as $10 million eight to nine years ago,” while excess providers lift attachment points or exit entirely. Large fleets are responding by raising deductibles or exploring captives—what Payne calls “the price of poker.”

AI and Telematics: Useful, But Not A Silver Bullet

Transport Topics reports AI and telematics are reshaping underwriting and claims—real-time ELD/dashcam data, ADAS, and analytics are increasingly table stakes. Still, results matter more than gadgets. Saeger cautioned, “Insurance is a bit of a show-me type industry, so just to have the technology doesn’t necessarily mean that you’ll have less claims… as you apply it, and it leads to less claims, you will see, we’ll call it ‘better rates relative to your peers.’”

On litigation strategy, video can be decisive. Starrett said favorable dash-cam evidence can deter weak claims before they escalate.

Practical Playbook For Fleets

Carriers that invest in hiring standards, training, and modern safety tech are faring better. Payne’s prescription: “To get insurers interested, you need to have strong driver hiring guidelines, strong driver qualification process, training, and then, again, have your fleet equipped with the most up-to-date technology.” Rapid claims reporting also matters. Saeger: “If we can make them understand that we’re there to help them and pay them… the better off I think all parties will be.” And as Cook summarizes, “As simplistic as it sounds, the best option is still not to have the claim in the first place.”

Where This Is Heading

Transport Topics characterizes 2025 as an inflection point where nuclear verdict exposure, tighter insurance capacity, and AI’s expanding role are “colliding.” Even with the Werner reversal, severity remains elevated and carriers, both large and small, face sustained premium pressure. The near-term path forward favors fleets that can prove safer operations, document compliance, leverage credible telematics, and partner early with counsel and insurers to manage litigation risk.

Source: Transport Topics 1, 2 | WebProNews