Morgan Stanley: Spot Rates to $1.88 in 6 Months

Exploring tractor counts and rate forecasts, logistics pros face a market balancing act between capacity and demand.

Morgan Stanley: Spot Rates to $1.88 in 6 Months
Image Source: FreightWaves SONAR

As we try to paint a clearer picture of the current freight market and its future direction, it's helpful to seek out conversations among industry experts.

Professionals are eyeing the imbalance between the high number of tractors battling for a lower volume of freight. While tractor counts remain elevated, signaling a surplus in carrying capacity, market watchers are debating the accuracy and timeliness of these figures, sourced from FMCSA data, which is updated monthly but only required biennially.

Amidst this, Morgan Stanley's TLQURE model forecasts an increase in spot rates to $1.88 in 6 months and $2.28 in 12 months. Founder and President of labels the rate predictions as "aggressive," hinting at a market on the brink of change.

The logistics community agrees on one point: the need for an equilibrium shift. This could come from a market shakeout, reducing the surplus capacity, or an economic upswing to boost freight demand.

Sources: @Logisticsexpert/X | Anthony F./LinkedIn

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